EUR/USD Price Forecast: Trump turns off the tariffs’ switch

EUR/USD Current price: 1.1714

• US President Donald Trump announced the framework of a deal over Greenland.
• The US Q3 Gross Domestic Product was upwardly revised to 4.4% from the previous 4.3% estimate.
• EUR/USD consolidates above 1.1700, maintains its positive tone.

The US Dollar (USD) pared losses on Wednesday, as the United States (US) reached a framework of a deal with the North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO) on Greenland. Without giving much detail, US President Donald Trump made the announcement after meeting Mark Rutte, the NATO Secretary General, adding he will take tariffs off the table.

Relief reached financial markets, as further headlines on the matter indicate that the potential deal does not affect Denmark's sovereignty over Greenland, easing concerns about escalating military or economic conflicts between the US and Europe.

Details on the deal had not been released, although the New York Times reported that the US would have small pockets of land inside Greenland and would be able to install a dome in the territory. It also mentioned the US will somehow be involved in Greenland’s mineral rights and that Russia and China would have no access to it.

Despite a better market mood, the Greenback remained weak throughout the first half of the day, with the EUR/USD pair trading above 1.1700 ahead of US data releases.

The country released a revision of the Q3 Gross Domestic Product (GDP), upwardly revising annualized growth in the three months to September to 4.4% from the previous estimate of 4.3%. The news did little for the US Dollar, which remains weak early in the American session. Also, Initial Jobless Claims for the week ended January 17 rose by 200K, slightly above the previous 199K, although better than the 212K anticipated by market players.

Coming up next, the EU will publish the preliminary estimate of January Consumer Confidence, while the US will offer October and November Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) Price Index figures.

EUR/USD short-term technical outlook

The 4-hour chart for EUR/USD shows buyers paused, but hold the grip. The 20-period Simple Moving Average (SMA) continues advancing, already above the 100 SMA yet below the gently ascending 200 SMA, while price holds above all three. The 20 SMA at 1.1690 offers immediate dynamic support, followed by the 100 SMA at around 1.1680. Meanwhile, the Relative Strength Index (RSI) indicator aims north at around 61, while the Momentum indicator eases within positive levels, reflecting the ongoing consolidation rather than suggesting an upcoming slide.

Technical readings in the daily chart suggest EUR/USD will continue advancing. The pair develops above all its moving averages, with a mildly bearish 20-day SMA holding above the longer ones. A flat 100-day SMA at around 1165 acts as dynamic support. At the same time, technical indicators aim marginally higher, although still within neutral levels, in line with the limited directional momentum. The pair has a strong static barrier in the 1.1740/60 region, with buyers likely becoming more courageous once the area is overcome.

(The technical analysis of this story was written with the help of an AI tool.)