EUR/USD Price Forecast: Sentiment remains fragile, US Dollar eases

EUR/USD Current price: 1.1642

• The Middle East crisis intensifies, albeit the dismal mood temporarily eased.
• The US ADP Employment Change report showed that the private sector added 63K new positions in February.
• EUR/USD recovered from weekly lows, but the risk remains skewed to the downside.

The EUR/USD pair finally found a near-term bottom, currently trading at around 1.1640 after falling to 1.1530 on Tuesday. The market mood remains wary as the Middle East crisis intensifies, albeit crude oil prices seem to have stabilized, bringing a bit of fresh air. Meanwhile, stocks trade with a positive tone in Europe, while US futures hover around Tuesday’s closing levels, reflecting easing risk aversion.

Other than that, market players seem to be paying a bit more attention to data. On the one hand, the Hamburg Commercial Bank (HCOB) published the final estimate of the February Composite and Services Purchasing Managers’ Indexes (PMIs), both confirmed at 51.9 for the EU.

The Union also released the January Producer Price Index, which rose 0.7% in the month, much higher than the expected 0.2% and the previous -0.3%. The annualized PPI printed at  -2.1% following the -2.7% posted in December. Inflation in the Old Continent is showing signs of picking up, not really concerning at the time being, but still triggering some warning signs.

Across the pond, ADP released the February Employment Change report, which showed that the private sector added 63K new positions in the month, largely surpassing the previous revised 11K and beating the expected 50K. Coming up next, S&P Global and ISM will release their own estimates of the United States (US) Services PMIs for the same month.

EUR/USD short-term technical outlook

In the 4-hour chart, EUR/USD trades at 1.1644. The near-term bias remains mildly bearish as the pair holds below the 20-period and 100-period Simple Moving Averages (SMAs), while the 20 SMA has turned lower and converges toward the price, reinforcing downside pressure. The 100-period SMA slopes lower above 1.1800, extending the broader corrective backdrop, with the flatter 200 SMA near 1.1805 acting as a distant reference cap. The Momentum indicator remains below 0 despite a modest improvement, indicating that selling pressure is easing but not reversed, while the Relative Strength Index (RSI) recovers from oversold territory toward 40, hinting at a corrective pause within a still-fragile structure.

In the daily chart, EUR/USD also retains the mildly bearish tone as spot dips below the 20-day SMA around 1.1800 while still holding above the rising 100- and 200-day SMAs clustered near 1.17. At the same time, the Momentum indicator has slipped further below 0, indicating strengthening downside pressure, while the RSI recovers from oversold territory but remains below the 50 line, reinforcing a downside tilt rather than a clear trend reversal higher.

Immediate resistance is located at 1.1700, followed by 1.1745, where a horizontal level converges with the underside of the 20-day SMA, and a daily close above this area would be needed to ease current selling pressure and reopen 1.18. On the downside, strong support is seen at 1.1530, where the pair bottomed this week.

(The technical analysis of this story was written with the help of an AI tool.)