EUR/USD Price Forecast: Sellers gain confidence, lower lows at sight

EUR/USD Current price: 1.1590

• Upbeat United States data fueled demand for the US Dollar in the American session.
• US President Donald Trump hinted at potential trade deals with the Eurozone and India.
• EUR/USD clinched lower lows for the week as bears retain control.

The EUR/USD pair remains under pressure, trading near a fresh weekly low at 1.1552. The US Dollar (USD) retains its firm tone across the FX board after a volatile day in which the Federal Reserve’s (Fed) autonomy and tariffs retained the spotlight.

US President Donald Trump was said to be consulting lawmakers about firing Fed Chair Jerome Powell, but later clarified that changes will be in eight months, that is, when Powell’s term finishes. Meanwhile, Trump hinted at possible trade agreements with the Eurozone and India.

Additionally, Senate Republicans agreed to cancel $9 billion in funding to foreign aid and public broadcasting, moving one step closer to approving President Trump’s DOGE spending law. The package now returns to the House for final approval.

Data-wise, the EU released the final estimate of the June Harmonized Index of Consumer Prices (HICP), which confirmed the annual index at 2%. Across the pond, upbeat data fueled the USD. The country published June Retail Sales, which rose by 0.6% in the month, recovering from the previous 0.9% slide and beating the 0.1% expected.

Initial Jobless Claims in the week ended July 12 rose by 221K, better than the 235K expected. Finally, the Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Survey improved to 15.9 in July from the -4 posted in June, much better than the -1 anticipated by market’s analysts.

EUR/USD short-term technical outlook

From a technical point of view, the daily chart for the EUR/USD pair shows it posted a lower high and a lower low, while extending its slide below a now flat 20 Simple Moving Average (SMA). At the same time, the pair develops below the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement of the 1.1453-1.1830 June/July rally. Finally, technical indicators accelerated south within negative levels, maintaining firm downward slopes and anticipating lower lows ahead.

The near-term picture is also bearish. In the 4-hour chart, a sharply bearish 20 SMA keeps containing advances, while extending its slide below a flat 100 SMA. EUR/USD is currently battling to remain above a mildly bullish 200 SMA. Technical indicators, in the meantime, resumed their slides within negative levels, in line with additional slides.

Support levels: 1.1550 1.1510 1.1470

Resistance levels: 1.1635 1.1680 1.1725