EUR/USD Price Forecast: Optimism and soft employment data weigh on the US Dollar

EUR/USD Current price: 1.1594

• German Economic Sentiment deteriorated in November, according to the ZEW survey.
• The US private sector lost 11,250K jobs in the 4 weeks to October 25, ADP reported.
• EUR/USD gains upward traction, could extend its advance in the near term.

The EUR/USD pair extends its weekly advance on Tuesday, nearing the 1.1600 mark early in the American session. Generally speaking, the US Dollar (USD) trades with a soft tone against major rivals amid hopes the United States (US) government shutdown is living its last days.

Over the weekend, the Senate passed a temporary funding bill to reopen the federal government, which has been on pause since October 1. The bill is expected to be approved by the Republican-controlled House of Representatives on Wednesday. Afterwards, President Donald Trump should sign it into law.

Earlier in the day, Germany published the November ZEW survey, which showed that Economic Sentiment in the country deteriorated to 38.5 from 39.3 in October. The same report showed that the assessment of the current situation improved a bit, to -78.7 from -80. Finally, the EU Economic Sentiment improved to 25 in the same period, up from 22.7.

The US celebrates Veterans’ Day, meaning banks will be closed, although Wall Street will operate as usual. Still, Automatic Data Processing, Inc. (ADP) released a new 4-week average on Employment Change, which showed that “for the four weeks ending Oct. 25, 2025, private employers shed an average of 11,250 jobs a week, suggesting that the labor market struggled to produce jobs consistently during the second half of the month.” The news helped keep the USD on the back foot.

EUR/USD short-term technical outlook

The EUR/USD pair trades in the 1.1590 area, and the 4-hour chart shows that the 20-period Simple Moving Average (SMA) advances below the current level, currently at 1.1557, providing support while crossing above the 100 SMA, a sign of mounting upward pressure. The 200 SMA, in the meantime, offers dynamic resistance at 1.1623. At the same time, the Momentum indicator remains positive but lacks directional strength, while the Relative Strength Index (RSI) remains at 65, maintaining its upward slope and supporting further gains.

In the daily chart, the 20-day SMA slopes lower beneath the 100-day SMA, keeping the near-term tone soft. The price holds below the 100-day SMA at 1.1666 while remaining above the rising 200-day SMA, indicating an underlying medium-term bid. Finally, the Momentum indicator remains below its neutral line but turns higher, signaling a waning of downside pressure, while the RSI stands neutral at 49.6.

(The technical analysis of this story was written with the help of an AI tool)