EUR/USD Price Forecast: Cautious optimism maintains the pair afloat

EUR/USD Current price: 1.1576

• Several Federal Reserve officials will offer speeches throughout the American session.
• Market players are cautiously optimistic amid hopes the US government will soon reopen.
• The EUR/USD is neutral to bullish in the near term, lacking directional momentum.

Uneventful trading persists on Wednesday, with EUR/USD stuck around 1.1570 early in the American session, as market participants patiently await the resolution of the United States (US) government shutdown. The House or Representatives is expected to pass the funding bill approved by the Senate today, then forward it to President Donald Trump for signature.

Other than that, multiple Federal Reserve (Fed) officials will be on the wires in the upcoming hours, and investors will be attentive to any shift in their tone. Recent US discouraging employment-related data has revived speculation of a forthcoming interest rate cut when the central bank meets in December, after Chair Jerome Powell wiped them off following the October meeting.

Finally, it’s worth adding that the market’s sentiment remains positive: most Asian and European indexes spent the day in the green, while Wall Street hovers around its weekly highs at the time of writing, albeit without follow-through.

EUR/USD short-term technical outlook

The EUR/USD trades little changed at 1.1576, with a limited downward scope in the 4-hour chart. The 20-period Simple Moving Average (SMA) advances around 1.156 just below the 100 SMA at 1.1575, both providing a near-term floor. On the contrary, the 200-period SMA at 1.1619 acts as dynamic support. The Momentum indicator cools within positive levels, reflecting waning upside pressure. Finally, the Relative Strength Index (RSI) at 55.9 also eases, aligning with a neutral stance. A decisive close above the 200-period SMA would open room for an extension higher, whereas a drop back below the 100- and 20-period SMAs would revive downside risk within the longer-term bearish slope.

In the daily chart, a bearish 20-day Simple Moving Average (SMA) caps advances around the daily high, while slopes lower beneath the 100-day SMA, the latter at 1.1665. Meanwhile, the Momentum heads nowhere just below its midline, while the RSI indicator aims marginally lower at around 46, consistent with a mild negative bias.

(The technical analysis of this story was written with the help of an AI tool)