EUR/USD Price Forecast: Buyers paused but hold the grip

EUR/USD Current price: 1.1651

• The US Dollar trades with a soft tone as investors await United States employment data spread throughout the week.
• The US Federal Reserve is likely to cut the benchmark interest rate by 25 basis points this week.
• The EUR/USD pair is technically neutral, but holding near its recent multi-week peak.

The EUR/USD pair comfortably consolidates around 1.1650 on Monday, with the US Dollar (USD) under mild selling pressure across the FX board. Market participants await fresh United States (US) data and the outcome of the December Federal Reserve (Fed) monetary policy meeting. The Fed is scheduled to announce its decision on Wednesday, with increased odds for a dovish outcome.

The central bank will also release a fresh Summary of Economic Projections (SEP), a document in which policymakers share their expectations on economic developments and the direction of monetary policy.

The focus will also be on US President Donald Trump, who recently stated that he will announce his successor to the Fed Chairman early in 2026. Chair Jerome Powell’s mandate ends in May 2026, and President Trump has strongly opposed the cautious stance adopted by the current Fed Chair, pressuring officials to speed up interest rate cuts. The SEP indeed could bring some interesting surprises.

In the meantime, Germany published October Industrial Production, which increased by 0.8% in the month, better than the 1% decline posted in September. As for the EU, the December Sentix Investor Confidence index resulted at -6.2, improving from the -7.4 posted in the previous month.

There is no other relevant data scheduled for the rest of the day, although the US will release several employment-related figures throughout the week, including the ADP Employment Change, the JOLTS Job Openings report an, weekly unemployment claim figures.

EUR/USD short-term technical outlook

From a technical point of view, the EUR/USD pair trades in the 1.1650 area, little changed on a daily basis. In the 4-hour chart, the 20-period Simple Moving Average (SMA) rises above the 100- and 200-period SMAs, signaling a bullish alignment, but also acts as dynamic resistance, developing just above the current level. The longer SMAs edge marginally higher, and the pair holds well above them, keeping the near-term tone supported. At the same time, the Momentum indicator softens below its midline, pointing to waning intraday drive. At the same time, the Relative Strength Index (RSI) indicator holds at around 54 and cushions the downside. On pullbacks, dynamic support aligns at the 100- and 200-period SMAs at 1.1593–1.1585.

In the daily chart, EUR/USD trades at around a directionless 100 SMA, while the 20 and 200 SMAs advance below the current level. At the same time, the Momentum indicator stands above 0 and extends modestly higher, while the RSI prints at 59, skewing the risk to the upside. The 20-day SMA at 1.1594 offers initial dynamic support, while failure to hold above the 100-day SMA at 1.1645 should discourage buyers.

(The technical analysis of this story was written with the help of an AI tool)