EUR/USD Price Forecast: Bulls need to conquer the 1.1930 mark

Valeria Bednarik FXStreet

EUR/USD Current price: 1.1855

EU Industrial Production fell sharply in December after a modest November advance.
United States markets will remain closed in observance of Presidents' Day.
EUR/USD is technically neutral, sellers aligned around 1.1930.

The FX board is showing no signs of life at the beginning of the week, with most major pairs stuck to tight ranges. The EUR/USD pair hovers around 1.1860, extending its consolidative phase, unable to react to European data.

The European Union published December Industrial Production figures, which showed a seasonally adjusted annualized decrease of 1.4% in the euro area and of 0.8% in the EU, according to Eurostat. Additionally, the report showed that the annual average industrial production for the year 2025, compared with 2024, increased by 1.5% in both the euro area and the EU.

Other than that, comments from United States (US) President Donald Trump made the rounds after meeting Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu. Trump said he would support Israeli strikes on Iran's ballistic missile program if negotiations between Washington and Tehran fail.

US markets will remain closed on Monday amid the celebration of Presidents' Day, meaning the macroeconomic calendar will remain empty. Generally speaking, the week has little to offer in terms of fundamental updates, although S&P Global, alongside different local banks, will publish the flash estimates of the January Purchasing Managers’ Indexes (PMIs) on Friday.

EUR/USD short-term technical outlook

The near-term picture is neutral. The 4-hour chart showed EUR/USD trades below the 20-period Simple Moving Average (SMA), which is attempting to pierce the mildly bullish 100-period SMA, both of which contain the upside at around 1.1870. The 200-period SMA, in the meantime, provides support at 1.1773. At the same time, the Momentum indicator lacks directional strength right below its midline, while the Relative Strength Index (RSI) indicator stands at 44, skewing the risk to the downside without confirming it.

In the daily chart, EUR/USD approaches a bullish 20-day SMA, currently at 1.1848, which has continuously provided dynamic support. The longer SMAs remain well below the shorter one, maintaining modest upward slopes and limiting the bearish case in the broader context. Finally, technical indicators edge lower, with the Momentum indicator dipping into negative territory, but the RSI indicator sitting at 54. A clear break below 1.1840 should open the door for a deeper decline, with the 1.1800 level becoming the next relevant support.

(The technical analysis of this story was written with the help of an AI tool.)

Author

Valeria Bednarik

FXStreet

Valeria Bednarik was born and lives in Buenos Aires, Argentina. Her passion for math and numbers pushed her into studying economics in her younger years.

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