EUR/USD Price Forecast: Bulls aiming to test the 1.1000 psychological threshold

Valeria Bednarik FXStreet

EUR/USD Current price: 1.0917

German political headlines keep the EUR on the winning side.
Concerns about the United States' economic health weigh on the USD.
EUR/USD maintains its upward momentum despite extreme overbought conditions.

The EUR/USD pair extended its recent rally to 1.0920, a fresh 2025 high. The broad US Dollar’s (USD) weakness, alongside encouraging German political news, underpinned the pair.

The USD remains pressured by concerns about the United States (US) economic health under President Donald Trump’s mandate. His decision to hit major trading counterparts with massive tariffs alongside the threat of reciprocal levies coming in the next few weeks fuel growth and inflation concerns.

Meanwhile, likely incoming German Chancellor Friedrich Merz will keep working on his plan to relax the strict limits imposed by the debt brake and invest more in defence and infrastructure. The opposing Green party vowed to reject the project on Monday, but market participants see it as a negotiation manoeuvre and maintain the optimism. The Greens demand climate-related investments and more controls in the infrastructure spending package.

Data-wise, the macroeconomic calendar had little to offer during European trading hours. The American session, on the other hand, will bring the January JOLTS Job Openings report. Given that the February Nonfarm Payrolls report was released last Friday, the data will likely have a limited impact.

EUR/USD short-term technical outlook

The EUR/USD pair trades near its intraday high ahead of the US opening, and the daily chart shows a persistent upward momentum despite technical indicators developing at extremely overbought levels. At the same time, EUR/USD advances beyond all its moving averages, with an almost vertical 20 Simple Moving Average (SMA) crossing above a flat 100 SMA.

In the near term, and according to the 4-hour chart, the pair keeps finding buyers around a bullish 20 SMA. The 100 and 200 SMAs gain upward traction, although over 400 pips below the shorter one. Finally, technical indicators lack directional strength, with the Momentum indicator holding well above its midline and the Relative Strength Index (RSI) indicator stuck just above the 70 mark.

Support levels: 1.0885 1.0830 1.0790

Resistance levels: 1.0925 1.0960 1.1000

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Author

Valeria Bednarik

FXStreet

Valeria Bednarik was born and lives in Buenos Aires, Argentina. Her passion for math and numbers pushed her into studying economics in her younger years.

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