EUR/USD Outlook: Recovery needs close above pivotal Fibo barrier to signal reversal

Slobodan Drvenica Windsor Brokers

EUR/USD

The Euro stands at the front foot on Wednesday and probes again above pivotal Fibo barrier at 1.0838 (23.6% of 1.1494/1.0635 fall) following Tuesday's failure to clearly break above, despite spike to 1.0887. The sentiment has improved on action of global central banks to cushion strong negative impact from corona virus pandemic, with latest Fed's $2 trillion aid package, being the highlight. Traders however remain cautious, as recovery action in past three days faced strong upside rejections (presented by three bullish daily candles with long upper shadows) that weighs on current recovery. Also, momentum on daily chart is pointing down and converging from north-heading RSI and stochastic, while daily MA's remain in full bearish setup. Close above 1.0838 is seen as minimum requirement for initial reversal signal, which would look for confirmation on break of falling 10DMA (1.0906) and Fibo 38.2% (1.0963). Caution on repeated failure to close above 1.0838 Fibo barrier as this could be initial signal that bulls are running out of steam.

Res: 1.0849; 1.0878; 1.0906; 1.0963
Sup: 1.0800; 1.0759; 1.0740; 1.0724

Author

Slobodan Drvenica

Windsor Brokers

Industry veteran with over 22 years’ experience, Slobodan Drvenica joined Windsor Brokers in 1995 when he was an active trader for more than 10 years, managing the trading desk and own account departments.

EUR/USD remains offered below 1.1600, seems vulnerable near multi-month low

The EUR/USD pair struggles to capitalize on the overnight bounce from the 1.1530 region, or the lowest level since November 2025, and lower for the third consecutive day on Wednesday. Spot prices slide back below the 1.1600 mark during the Asian session and seem vulnerable to slide further.

GBP/USD slips below key averages as geopolitical risks mount

GBP/USD fell about 0.35% on Tuesday, settling around 1.3350 after slipping below the 200-day Exponential Moving Average for the first time since early December. The pair has pulled back sharply from its late-January high near 1.3870, shedding over 500 pips in a series of lower highs and lower lows.

Gold rebounds ahead of US ADP, will it last?

Gold finds renewed Asian bids and retests $5,230 early Wednesday after the heavy sell-off on Tuesday. The US Dollar stands tall amid escalating Middle East tensions and reduced dovish Fed expectations. Gold defends $5,000 or 50% Fibo level after facing rejection at the 78.6% Fibo resistance at $5,342 amid bullish RSI.

Bitcoin, Ethereum and Ripple struggle for direction as consolidation persists

Bitcoin, Ethereum and Ripple prices trade with a cautious tone at the time of writing on Wednesday as upside momentum continues to fade across the broader crypto market. BTC remains within a parallel channel, ETH struggles below key resistance, while XRP remains fragile within a descending channel. These top three cryptocurrencies by market capitalization continue to struggle to establish a directional bias amid the consolidation phase.

Energy shock 2.0: Why rising Gas prices could hit the Euro

Even without a confirmed, sustained disruption, the mere risk to a key global energy chokepoint is enough to inject a significant premium into European Gas markets. And for the Euro, that matters.

Ripple falters amid sell-off jitters and negative funding rates

Ripple (XRP) has come under pressure, drifting lower to $1.35 at the time of writing on Tuesday. The over 2% correction looks poised to erase the previous day’s gains, which lifted the remittance token to $1.42.