EUR/USD outlook: Bears are taking a breather but near-term outlook remains negative

Slobodan Drvenica Windsor Brokers

EUR/USD

The Euro consolidating within 1.0783/1.0835 range after six straight days of losses (the pair was down 2.5% last week) but maintaining bearish bias as today's action stays capped by broken key Fibo support at 1.0835 (61.8% of 1.0635/1.1147). There was little benefit from German data which came in much better than expected figure, although still very negative (German Factory Orders Feb -1.4% vs -2.4% f/c and 4.8% in Jan). Mixed daily studies (MA's in negative setup/oversold stochastic and rising momentum) might keep near-term action in extended directionless mode. Overall picture on daily chart is negative, with bearish signal on close below 1.0831 Fibo support weighing. Bearish scenario requires extension and close below 1.0756 (Fibo 76.4) that would unmask key support at 1.0635 (23 Mar low / the lowest since Apr 2017). Strong demand for safe-haven dollar adds to negative outlook. On the other side, daily cloud is thinning and twists this week (1.1008) which could be magnetic. Expect initial positive signal on close above 1.0831 that would expose 10DMA (1.0933), but a cluster of daily MA's and cloud base mark strong barriers and would likely cap potential extended upticks.

Res: 1.0831; 1.0891; 1.0933; 1.0951
Sup: 1.0772; 1.0756; 1.0700; 1.0635

Author

Slobodan Drvenica

Windsor Brokers

Industry veteran with over 22 years’ experience, Slobodan Drvenica joined Windsor Brokers in 1995 when he was an active trader for more than 10 years, managing the trading desk and own account departments.

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