Slobodan Drvenica
Windsor Brokers
EUR/USD
The Euro keeps firm tone and hits new five-week high in early European trading on Wednesday. Fresh bull-leg extends into third consecutive day and cracked pivotal barriers at 1.0830 zone, consisting of 100DMA (1.0823) / Fibo 61.8% of 1.0981/1.0601 downtrend (1.0836) and thin daily cloud (spanned between 1.0820 and 1.0838).
Technical picture on daily chart is bullish (strong positive momentum / daily Tenkan/Kijun-sen bull cross) and continues to underpin the action, though increased headwinds should be anticipated, as bulls challenge very strong resistance zone and stochastic is overbought.
Bullish scenario requires firm break higher to signal continuation of larger uptrend towards targets at 1.0885 / 1.0916 (Apr 9 high / Fibo 76.4%).
Conversely, failure to register a clear break higher would ease the upside pressure, but near-term action to remain biased higher while holding above broken 200DMA / 50 retracement (1.0790) reverted to solid support.
Caution of break and close below 200DMA which would sideline bulls and risk deeper pullback.
The single currency was inflated by the data released on Tuesday (German annualized inflation ticked higher in April and German / Eurozone economic sentiment improved well above expectations).
Markets shift focus to key economic event today – release of US inflation report for April, which is expected to give fresh hints to the Fed and likely accelerate the price action upon release.
Inflation in the US is expected to ease in April (CPI y/y Apr 3.4% f/c vs Mar 3.5%; Core CPI y/y Apr 3.6% vs Mar 3.8%) with April figures in line or below expectations to fuel expectations for Fed rate cut in coming months and increase pressure on dollar, while higher than expected readings would sour the sentiment about policy easing and inflate the greenback.
Res: 1.0838; 1.0885; 1.0891; 1.0942.
Sup: 1.0812; 1.0790; 1.0774; 1.0746.
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The information contained in this document was obtained from sources believed to be reliable, but its accuracy or completeness cannot be guaranteed. Any opinions expressed herein are in good faith, but are subject to change without notice. No liability accepted whatsoever for any direct or consequential loss arising from the use of this document.
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