EUR/USD: Levels, Ranges, Targets

Brian Twomey Brian's Investment

Draghi on hold is the result to alternatives to CHF, GBP, DKK and SEK as those interest rates trade below European rates and are literally on the floor near zero. Negative interest rates contain bottoms at zero.
Added is non negative interest rate nation GBP. Anymore Draghi cuts will force the BOE to move.
Further, the entire Draghi story in interest rate cuts is not about economics at this stage, its systemic as two years later into negative, the cuts haven't produced any promises and the ECB is rolling out huge changes July 1. Now is not the time for Draghi to move interest rates further.

The interest rate game these days by central banks is compress not expand the channels between and among nations. To understand how this plan operates, I constructed a 10 nation, 9 year interest rate index and published results, findings, explantions, and the way forward in trades. The overall plan is garner control over M1, the exchange rate and severely limit volatility. On NFP day for example, today's EUR/USD pip range is 49 pips and down about 7 pips from yesterday's range. Central bank policies today are in uncharted territory, never before seen and far from the tradition.

EUR/USD Bottom today, 1.1099, note monthly average 1.1090 contains big break. For NFP trade, any price below 1.1099 look for longs. Price achieves 1.1099 by breaks at targets 1.1127, 1.1113, 1.1108 then bottoms 1.1099. A break of 1.1090 is not expected but next 1.1084, 1.1044, 1.0988. Any price below 1.1099 becomes oversold.

Big break points above today, 1.1164, 1.1173, 1.1221, 1.1223, 1.1292. Monthly average break 1.1552. Above 1.1292 is not expected but next big break points exist at 1.1372, 1.1382. Both points perfctly in line against Forward trend lines, today at 1.1381.

Upper targets, 1.1168, 1.1188, 1.1212. The NFP trade is any price above 1.1212, begin to look for shorts. Above 1.1212, comes next 1.1225, 1.1239, 1.1252. All this not expected today as 1.1221 and 1.1223 presents tough resistance and must break to see higher over coming days.

Monthly averages found 1.1090 to 1.1552, current price is oversold on the day and at bottom of the range.

Author

Brian Twomey

Brian's Investment

Brian Twomey is an independent trader and a prolific writer on trading, having authored over sixty articles in Technical Analysis of Stocks & Commodities and Investopedia.

EUR/USD hits two-day highs near 1.1820

EUR/USD picks up pace and reaches two-day tops around 1.1820 at the end of the week. The pair’s move higher comes on the back of renewed weakness in the US Dollar amid growing talk that the Fed could deliver an interest rate cut as early as March. On the docket, the flash US Consumer Sentiment improves to 57.3 in February.

GBP/USD reclaims 1.3600 and above

GBP/USD reverses two straight days of losses, surpassing the key 1.3600 yardstick on Friday. Cable’s rebound comes as the Greenback slips away from two-week highs in response to some profit-taking mood and speculation of Fed rate cuts. In addition, hawkish comments from the BoE’s Pill are also collaborating with the quid’s improvement.

Gold climbs further, focus is back to 45,000

Gold regains upside traction and surpasses the $4,900 mark per troy ounce at the end of the week, shifting its attention to the critical $5,000 region. The move reflects a shift in risk sentiment, driving flows back towards traditional safe haven assets and supporting the yellow metal.

Crypto Today: Bitcoin, Ethereum, XRP rebound amid risk-off, $2.6 billion liquidation wave

Bitcoin edges up above $65,000 at the time of writing on Friday, as dust from the recent macro-triggered sell-off settles. The leading altcoin, Ethereum, hovers above $1,900, but resistance at $2,000 caps the upside. Meanwhile, Ripple has recorded the largest intraday jump among the three assets, up over 10% to $1.35.

Three scenarios for Japanese Yen ahead of snap election

The latest polls point to a dominant win for the ruling bloc at the upcoming Japanese snap election. The larger Sanae Takaichi’s mandate, the more investors fear faster implementation of tax cuts and spending plans.

XRP rally extends as modest ETF inflows support recovery

Ripple is accelerating its recovery, trading above $1.36 at the time of writing on Friday, as investors adjust their positions following a turbulent week in the broader crypto market. The remittance token is up over 21% from its intraday low of $1.12.