Last Thursday’s signals were not triggered as the high of the day was unfortunately just a pip or two below the resistance level identified at 1.1322, and as there was no bullish price action at 1.1276.

Today’s EUR/USD Signals

Risk 0.75%.

Trades must be taken from 8am until 5pm London time today only.

Short Trades

  • Go short following a bearish price action reversal on the H1 time frame immediately upon the next touch of 1.1276 or 1.1322.

  • Put the stop loss 1 pip above the local swing high.

  • Adjust the stop loss to break even once the trade is 20 pips in profit.

  • Remove 50% of the position as profit when the price reaches 20 pips in profit and leave the remainder of the position to run.

Long Trade

Go long following a bullish price action reversal on the H1 time frame immediately upon the next touch of 1.1150.

Put the stop loss 1 pip above the local swing high.

Adjust the stop loss to break even once the trade is 20 pips in profit.

Remove 50% of the position as profit when the price reaches 20 pips in profit and leave the remainder of the position to run.

The best method to identify a classic “price action reversal” is for an hourly candle to close, such as a pin bar, a doji, an outside or even just an engulfing candle with a higher close. You can exploit these levels or zones by watching the price action that occurs at the given levels.

I wrote last Thursday that as the ECB was giving its monthly input so that was likely to cause a spike in volatility and unpredictable price movement. In fact, the release caused the price to move down strongly and break the long-term range this pair has been trading in. The break was strong and significant and was made on high volatility. However, the price has turned around quite sharply at the low below 1.1200 and has continued to rise from there, so it looks likely that we are not going to see these lows again, at least not for a while. It is quite likely that the price will now rise slowly before meeting resistance at the psychological level of 1.1250 or the next resistance at 1.1276. How the price reacts there will tell us something. Otherwise, I have no directional bias today.

EURUSD

There is nothing of high importance due today concerning the EUR. Regarding the USD, there will be a release of Retail Sales data at 1:30pm London time followed at 1:00am by a minor speech from the Chair of the Federal Reserve.

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