EUR/USD Forecast: would US employment data push it through 1.1800?

  • US November ADP seen at 185K, from previous 235K.
  • US  Wages´ growth seen advancing just modestly in Q3.

The common currency continues trading heavily against its American rival, as demand for the latest persists. Despite worldwide equities dip into the red, a sign of easing optimism, the greenback remains generally strong after getting a helping hand during Asian trading hours from Australian GDP, as the economy grew by less-than-expected in Q3. The EUR/USD pair traded as low as 1.1800 late US session, bouncing afterwards to met sellers around 1.1850. The absence of European data is keeping the pair within a well-limited range ahead of the US session, where some relevant macroeconomic figures will be out, most of them linked to employment. The Nonfarm Payroll report is scheduled for this Friday, which means that today's readings will have an additional weight on investors sentiment.

The ADP private employment survey for November is expected to show that the economy added 185K new jobs, against the previous 235K. For the Q3, nonfarm productivity is expected to have risen by 3.3%, but the unit labor cost by 0.2%, against previous 0.5%. Better-than-expected wages' growth is what it takes to boost the greenback, particularly if the ADP post an encouraging result.

The technical outlook is bearish according to intraday charts, yet a break of the 1.1800 threshold is still required to convince bears in and bulls out, at least for the short-term. In the 4 hours chart, the price has broken below its 100 SMA for the first time in almost a month, while also developing below a now bearish 20 SMA. Technical indicators in the mentioned chart gain downward strength within negative territory, with the RSI now around 40. 

The pair has an immediate short-term resistance at 1.1860/70, but it will take some follow-through beyond 1.1890 to see the pair gaining further, up to 1.1930. Below 1.1800, on the other hand, the next supports come at 1.1760 and 1.1720, this last a probable daily floor in the case of a dollar's rally.  

View live chart of the EUR/USD

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