EUR/USD Forecast: Range-trading to prevail ahead of first-tier events

EUR/USD Current price: 1.0712

• German inflation rose by less than anticipated in April, according to preliminary estimates.
• Market participants await US employment-related data and the Federal Reserve’s decision.
• EUR/USD lacks apparent directional strength, bullish potential limited.

The EUR/USD pair retains modest intraday gains on Monday, trading around the 1.0710 level. The US Dollar gapped higher at the weekly opening but quickly changed course amid a better market mood. Asian stock markets posted substantial gains, helping EUR/USD advance. At the same time, government bond yields retreat from their recent peaks, putting modest pressure on the USD demand.

Nevertheless, the market’s action remains restricted as investors await United States (US) employment-related figures and the Federal Reserve (Fed) monetary policy announcement spread throughout the week. The Fed is widely anticipated to keep rates on hold, while speculative interest anticipated a generally hawkish statement, given macroeconomic data suggesting slowing growth alongside persistently high inflationary pressures. On the employment front, the week will include the JOLTS Job Openings report, the ADP survey on private job creation, and the Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP) report on Friday.

Near-term, Germany released the preliminary estimate of the April Harmonized Index of Consumer Prices (HICP), which rose 2.2% YoY and 0.5% MoM, below the market expectations but higher than in March. Also, the Eurozone published April Consumer Confidence, which remained unchanged at -14.7. The American session will bring little of interest, as the US will only release the April Dallas Fed Manufacturing Business Index.

EUR/USD short-term technical outlook

From a technical point of view, the daily chart for the EUR/USD pair shows a limited bullish potential. The pair develops below all its moving averages, with selling interest aligned around the 20 Simple Moving Average (SMA), currently at 1.0725. Technical indicators, in the meantime, seesaw within negative levels, lacking clear directional strength.

The EUR/USD pair is neutral in the near term. The 4-hour chart shows technical indicators holding around their midlines, reflecting the absence of directional interest. At the same time, a mildly bullish 20 SMA converges with a bearish 100 SMA just above the current level, with the pair unable to clear the congestion zone.

Support levels: 1.0690 1.0645 1.0600  

Resistance levels: 1.0730 1.0785 1.0810