The EUR/USD pair continued trading lifeless these past days, confined to a tight range for the fifth consecutive week, as investors are still looking for a fresh catalyst beyond Central Banks.
Market's attention is slowly turning towards US elections after the first US Presidential debate, called by media as a point-win for the Democrat candidate Hillary Clinton. The next debate will take place in a couple of weeks, and markets will be looking if any of the candidates is able to launch a bazooka to lean the scale one way or the other. Despite forecasting the effect of the election over financial markets is not an easy task, there's a general agreement that Clinton represents stability, while Donald Trump is more like a wild card, and his victory will probably mean risk-off.
Next Friday, the US will release its September employment data, and expectations point for a steady unemployment rate at 4.9% and a slightly rise in jobs ' creation, up to 170K from previous month 151K. A result in line with expectations will hardly be a game changer for the greenback, and attention will turn then, into wages. But considering Friday's figures on spending and income, seems wages will disappoint again. Personal income rose 0.2% in August, matching expectations, while spending was flat, against market's expectations of a 0.1% advance, according to the Department of Commerce. The same report shows that core personal consumption expenditures, , rose 0.2% month-on-month, while yearly basis, it climbed modestly for the first time since February, to 1.7% from 1.6%.
The dollar closes the week with a firmer tone, helped by risk sentiment rather than by strong local data, with the EUR/USD pair still stuck around the 1.1200 figure.
From a technical point of view, the pair is well limited between 1.1120 and 1.1280, and unless it is able to gain momentum either side of that range, it will have little to offer for one more week. Technical readings in the daily chart maintain the neutral tone, as the keeps hovering around its moving averages, while technical indicators aim modestly lower, but lack strength within neutral territory.
The levels to watch these upcoming days are the same seen last week, with 1.1160, as the immediate support, ahead of the base of the range at 1.1120, the lows for the last couple of weeks. Below this last, a downward extension can see 1.1000/40 by the end of the week, particularly if the NFP is a huge upward surprise.
The immediate resistance on the other hand is 1.1245, followed by the 1.1280/90 region. Beyond this last the rally can extend up to 1.1366, August high, en route to 1.1460, the level that caps the upside since early 2015.
Information on these pages contains forward-looking statements that involve risks and uncertainties. Markets and instruments profiled on this page are for informational purposes only and should not in any way come across as a recommendation to buy or sell in these assets. You should do your own thorough research before making any investment decisions. FXStreet does not in any way guarantee that this information is free from mistakes, errors, or material misstatements. It also does not guarantee that this information is of a timely nature. Investing in Open Markets involves a great deal of risk, including the loss of all or a portion of your investment, as well as emotional distress. All risks, losses and costs associated with investing, including total loss of principal, are your responsibility. The views and opinions expressed in this article are those of the authors and do not necessarily reflect the official policy or position of FXStreet nor its advertisers. The author will not be held responsible for information that is found at the end of links posted on this page.
If not otherwise explicitly mentioned in the body of the article, at the time of writing, the author has no position in any stock mentioned in this article and no business relationship with any company mentioned. The author has not received compensation for writing this article, other than from FXStreet.
FXStreet and the author do not provide personalized recommendations. The author makes no representations as to the accuracy, completeness, or suitability of this information. FXStreet and the author will not be liable for any errors, omissions or any losses, injuries or damages arising from this information and its display or use. Errors and omissions excepted.
The author and FXStreet are not registered investment advisors and nothing in this article is intended to be investment advice.
Recommended Content
Editors’ Picks
EUR/USD clings to gains above 1.0750 after US data
EUR/USD manages to hold in positive territory above 1.0750 despite retreating from the fresh multi-week high it set above 1.0800 earlier in the day. The US Dollar struggles to find demand following the weaker-than-expected NFP data.
GBP/USD declines below 1.2550 following NFP-inspired upsurge
GBP/USD struggles to preserve its bullish momentum and trades below 1.2550 in the American session. Earlier in the day, the disappointing April jobs report from the US triggered a USD selloff and allowed the pair to reach multi-week highs above 1.2600.
Gold struggles to hold above $2,300 despite falling US yields
Gold stays on the back foot below $2,300 in the American session on Friday. The benchmark 10-year US Treasury bond yield stays in negative territory below 4.6% after weak US data but the improving risk mood doesn't allow XAU/USD to gain traction.
Bitcoin Weekly Forecast: Should you buy BTC here? Premium
Bitcoin (BTC) price shows signs of a potential reversal but lacks confirmation, which has divided the investor community into two – those who are buying the dips and those who are expecting a further correction.
Week ahead – BoE and RBA decisions headline a calm week
Bank of England meets on Thursday, unlikely to signal rate cuts. Reserve Bank of Australia could maintain a higher-for-longer stance. Elsewhere, Bank of Japan releases summary of opinions.