EUR/USD Forecast: holding at lows, bearish

  • Profit-taking ahead of the weekend may trigger a bounce, but bearish trend firm in place.
  • US macroeconomic calendar to offer multiple Fed's speakers, none expected to rock the boat.

Major pairs remain stuck in limited ranges, with the greenback not far below its recent highs, and the EUR/USD pair stuck to the 1.1800 area, moving back and forth around the figure. The common currency didn’t react to local macroeconomic news, which were anyway little relevant. German wholesale price index picked up in April up 0.5% from the expected 0.2% advance, while the PPI also beat expectations, advancing 0.5% MoM and 2.0% YoY. Also, the EU trade balance posted a surplus of €21.2B in March, slightly better than the previous and the expected, although the current account missed market's forecast with €32.0B. The American session will be all about Canadian data, as there are no headlines scheduled for the US except for a couple of Fed speakers that have little chances of rocking the boat.

US Treasury yields stabilized near their recent multi-year highs, and the market is waiting for a catalyst. As usual on Fridays, profit-taking can push the greenback lower, particularly considering the EUR/USD pair is barely 40 pips away from its yearly low and down for a fifth consecutive week.

Technically, the 4 hours chart shows that the 20 SMA acted as dynamic resistance capping the upside at 1.1821, while the Momentum indicator is retreating from its mid-line and the RSI indicator resuming its decline around 38, both lacking strength, but any way leaning the scale toward the downside. The low for the week at 1.1763 is the immediate short-term support ahead of 1.1740, December monthly low, with a break below this last exposing 1.1710. Resistances from here come at the mentioned daily high, followed by 1.1850 and 1.1880.

View Live Chart for the EUR/USD

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