EUR/USD Forecast: Further gains still unclear

EUR/USD Current Price: 1.2062

• The US economy kept growing in April but at a slower than expected pace.
• German Retail Sales unexpectedly rose by 11% YoY in March.
• EUR/USD has retained the 1.2000 threshold, but its bullish potential is limited.

The EUR/USD pair trades around 1.2060, up for the day, holding near a peak at 1.2075. Markets started the week in slow motion, as China, Japan, and the UK celebrated bank holidays. Nevertheless, investors were mildly optimistic, with most European and American indexes closing in the green. Wall Street was mixed, as US data indicated growth, but missed expectations. The final reading of the April Markit Manufacturing PMI resulted in 60.5, below the 60.6 expected. The official ISM Manufacturing PMI for the same month came in at 60.7, well below the 65 expected and the previous 64.7.

Earlier in the day, Germany published March Retail Sales, which unexpectedly rose by 11% YoY, much better than the -3.1% expected. In the month, sales were up 7.7%. However, Markit published the final versions of its April Manufacturing PMIs, which were downwardly revised. The German index printed at 66.2 while the EU reading resulted in 62.9, below the 63.3 previously estimated. On Tuesday, the US will publish the March Goods Trade Balance.

EUR/USD short-term technical outlook

The EUR/USD pair is hovering just above the 23.6% retracement of its latest daily advance at around 1.2049. The near-term picture indicates that the bullish potential remains limited. In the 4-hour chart, the pair bounced from bullish 100 SMA but also that it remains below its 20 SMA, the latter providing dynamic resistance at around 1.2090. Technical indicators have recovered within negative levels but have partially lost bullish strength, indicating limited buying interest.

Support levels: 1.2040 1.1995 1.1950

Resistance levels: 1.2090 1.2130 1.2165

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