EUR/USD Forecast: Fears likely to push the pair towards 1.0760

Valeria Bednarik FXStreet

EUR/USD Current Price: 1.0898

Russian invasion of Ukraine maintains market players rushing into safety.
Stocks trade in the red but off intraday lows as sellers paused.
EUR/USD is set to extend its slump below 1.0800 towards 1.0760 in the near term.

The EUR/USD pair trades at around 1.0900, recovering from a fresh multi-month low of 1.0805 as mounting tensions related to the Russia-Ukraine war keep market players rushing into safety. The dollar soared at the weekly opening, particularly against its European rivals, but edged lower against Gold, which flirted with $2,000 a troy ounce.

The mood improved modestly mid-European session on headlines indicating that top Russian and Ukrainian diplomats will meet in Turkey next Thursday. Nevertheless, European indexes trade in the red while government bond yields remain subdued as nobody expects an end to this conflict soon.

Data wise, the EU published March Sentix Investor Confidence, which unexpectedly contracted to -7, much worse than the 5.3 expected and down from 16.6 in February. The US will not release relevant data today, and in fact, the macroeconomic calendar will remain quite scarce until Thursday, when the European Central Bank will announce its decision on monetary policy, and the US will publish February inflation figures.

EUR/USD short-term technical outlook

The EUR/USD pair is oversold on its daily chart but without signs of downward exhaustion. In the said time frame, technical indicators maintain their firmly bearish slopes within extreme levels as the pair fell further below its moving averages. The 20-SMA heads south almost vertically, currently at around 1.1255.

The 4-hour chart shows that technical indicators have corrected extreme readings but remain far below their midlines, suggesting that the current recovery is a mere correction. The 20-SMA heads firmly lower below the longer ones while above the current level, indicating that sellers retain control of the pair. The next relevant support area is at 1.0760, where the pair bottomed in May 2020.

Support levels: 1.0850 1.0805 1.0760

Resistance levels: 1.0920 1.0965 1.1010

View Live Chart for the EUR/USD

Author

Valeria Bednarik

FXStreet

Valeria Bednarik was born and lives in Buenos Aires, Argentina. Her passion for math and numbers pushed her into studying economics in her younger years.

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