EUR/USD Forecast: Encouraged by IFO, but bears are abound, technically and fundamentally

EUR/USD is trading above 1.1300, attempting a recovery after the downfall on Friday. The move higher is partly a correction and partly a response to the upbeat German IFO Business Climate that beat with 99.6 points. Other components of the report, coming from Germany's Think-tank, also came out above forecasts.

The IFO numbers contrast Friday's plunge in Markit's Manufacturing PMI, which tumbled down to 44.7 points, deep in contraction territory. Markets were spooked by the number and also found a new interpretation of the Fed's dovish decision. While the initial response was positive, as the Fed supports markets, the narrative changed to one of growing concern about the economy.

The US 3-month bond-yield topped the 10-year one, an inversion which has been a sign of an upcoming recession in the past. Not only US bond yields dropped, but also German ones. 10-year bunds are below 0%. The risk-off atmosphere kept the safe-haven US Dollar bid.

European Central Bank member Ardo Hansson said that Quantitative Easing could be restarted if needed, a dovish comment that could turn the pair down.

Mueller concluded, Brexit continues

Moving to politics, US Special Counsel Robert Mueller filed his report. He concluded that Russia tried to interfere in the US 2016 elections but that the Trump campaign did not collude. On the other hand, Mueller stated that his investigation does not exonerate the President from allegations of obstruction of justice.

Attorney General Willam Barr said that he does not see any need for further investigations, while Democrats demand to see the full report. At the moment, the story does not have any impact on markets, as political stability is guaranteed for some time.

The other big political story may have a more significant impact. The UK government convenes to debate the next Brexit steps amid reports that UK PM May may be forced to step down to get her deal through, or in general, as the chaos continues. 

Parliament may decide to take control of the debate, by voting today if to hold indicative votes on Wednesday. The House may signal which Brexit alternative it wants. The current Brexit deadline is April 12th.

EUR/USD Technical Analysis

EUR/USD is trading below the 50 and 200 Simple Moving Averages, a bearish sign. The Relative Strength Index remains depressed but holds above 30, thus not indicating oversold conditions. Momentum is to the downside.

All in all, bears are in control.

Some support awaits at 1.1290 that provided support earlier. 1.1275 was a stepping stone on the way up in mid-March and a swing low on Friday. 1.1250 was another separator of ranges on the way up, and 1.1220 was a support line.

`1.1325 is where the 200 SMA meets the price and 1.1340 is the 50 SMA. 1.1360 capped the pair before the Fed decision, and 1.1390 was a swing high before Friday's downfall. 1.1420 and the March high of 1.1448 are next.

More: EUR/USD will find it hard to recover above 1.1330 – Confluence Detector