EUR/USD Forecast: Downside cautiously reopening, like the economies

When will we go back to the bar? That is the question on many Spaniards' minds, and they may receive some answers later today when Prime Minister Pedro Sánchez presents a plan for easing one of the world's strictest lockdown measures. French President Emmanuel Macron is also due to lay out his ideas for reopening the economy.  They follow Italy, which presented a three-pronged scheme for returning to normal. All three countries badly suffered from coronavirus. 

Recent COVID-19 statistics have been encouraging and pressure from the public to get back to normal life is mounting. Faster paces may boost the common currency, but move too fast risks a second outbreak that may be severely demoralizing for healthcare workers, consumers, and businesses. 

More: Reopening: Timing is tough and two assets have more room to rise regardless

Investors are not only eyeing leaders' decisions but also the European Central Bank, which is set to announce its decision on Thursday. The Frankfurt-based institution may want to fill the gap that politicians left by failing to agree on a larger package but may wait for longer. More action could boost the euro.

See ECB Preview: The only game in town could be in lockdown, three mostly negative EUR/USD scenarios

In the meantime, EUR/USD is coming under pressure as the uncertainty is weighing on sentiment, and markets are less optimistic than on Monday. The crash in oil prices, with WTI Crude tumbling below $11 once again, has also dampened the mood. 

State of the US

Several US states have also announced the lapse of "stay-at-home" orders and looser limits on social interactions, most notably in Texas. New York, the epicenter of America's coronavirus outbreak, continued reporting declines in cases and deaths, yet plans the initial easing to happen only on May 15. 

President Donald Trump continued encouraging reopening the economies of states and foresaw significant growth later in the year. He refused to take responsibility for people drinking disinfectants following his suggestion that it may cure coronavirus on Thursday.

The president focused his ire in China and promised an investigation. The illness originated from a market in the Chinese city of Wuhan and arresting its spread has been a failure of both governments. Growing tensions between the world's largest economies – which are gradually decoupling – may weigh on global growth and boost the dollar. 

The Conference Board's consumer confidence gauge for April – during which most Americans were under various forms of lockdowns – is the highlight on the economic calendar on Tuesday. Good news may weigh on the safe-haven dollar while a significant fall may boost it, contrary to reactions in other currencies. 

See Consumer Confidence April Preview: Jobs, jobs, jobs

Traders are also gearing up toward the Federal Reserve's decision on Wednesday. Ahead of the first scheduled meeting since January, the Fed announced that it is easing its limits for buying municipal bonds, purchasing the debt of smaller cities, and in more sparsely populated counties. 

The bank will likely leave its policies unchanged but may provide guidance. 

See Fed Preview: Taking a break after two months of madness? Addicted markets may fall, dollar rise

Overall, coronavirus news – mostly related to lifting lockdowns and less around statistics – as well as speculation about central banks are all on the cards.

EUR/USD Technical Analysis

Euro/dollar is trading below the 50, 100, and 200 Simple Moving Averages on the four-hour chart, a bearish sign. It has also been setting lower lows, bearish signs. However, trading ranges are limited and momentum has stabilized. 

Support awaits around 1.0810, a low point seen twice in recent weeks. It is followed by 1.0770, the bottom in early April, and then by 1.0727, the monthly low.

Resistance is at 1.0855, the weekly high, followed by the round 1.09 level, which capped EUR/USD last week. The next levels to watch are 1.0930 and 1.0995.