EUR/USD Forecast: dollar trying to resume post-Fed's advance

EUR hurt by poor local data, risk aversion firm in the background.
US macroeconomic calendar with little to offer today.

Valeria Bednarik FXStreet

FOMC Minutes produced some noise late in the US afternoon, with a hawkish tone that gave the dollar a temporal boost that pulled majors off their daily highs. There was little action through the Asian session, while the European one is seeing the EUR/USD pair modestly lower in range, stuck around 1.2350/60. In the meantime, equities trade with a soft tone, marginally down in the region, as Wall Street closed in the red affected not only by Fed's statement but also by escalating tensions in the Middle East, after US President Trump menaced to attack Syria with missiles, in response to the chemical attack on civilians during the weekend. Market players are extremely sensitive to risk-averse headlines, which may come from any front, with the trade war and tension in Syria so beware of sudden moves out of the bloom.

The dollar keeps gaining across the FX board, with the EUR further weighed by poor local data, as EU Industrial Production surprisingly fell in February by 0.8% against a 0.1% advance expected. Still pending or release are the ECB's Monetary Policy Meeting Accounts, while the US will release later in the day the weekly unemployment claims figures, and import and export price indexes for March.

Technically, the pair is now trading at its daily lows in the 1.2330 region, and readings in the 4 hours chart suggest the decline may continue, as technical indicators head sharply lower straight from overbought readings, and are about to enter bearish territory. Furthermore, the price is now below its 20 SMA, and not far above flat and converging 100 and 200 SMAs, both around 1.2320. Below this last, the decline could extend toward 1.2290, en route to the 1.2250 region where the pair met buying interest multiple times in the past weeks. To the upside, 1.2370 is the immediate resistance, followed by the 1.2410 price zone.

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Author

Valeria Bednarik

FXStreet

Valeria Bednarik was born and lives in Buenos Aires, Argentina. Her passion for math and numbers pushed her into studying economics in her younger years.

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