EUR/USD Forecast: Bulls hesitate ahead of critical first-tier events

Valeria Bednarik FXStreet

EUR/USD Current price: 1.0947

Germany and the Eurozone will publish the Harmonized Index of Consumer Prices this week.
The United States will unveil October Personal Consumption Expenditures - Price Index.
EUR/USD is technically bullish but lacks momentum in the near term.

The EUR/USD pair maintains its positive tone at the beginning of the week and battles the 1.0960 level, a strong static resistance level. The US Dollar remains under selling pressure despite financial markets being cautious, with Asian stock markets in the red and European indexes posting modest losses. Poor Chinese industrial-related data spurred concerns and kept stocks under pressure, although demand for safety diverged away from the USD.

Data-wise, the macroeconomic calendar has nothing relevant to offer at the beginning of the week, with first-tier events scheduled throughout the next few days limiting price action. This week, Germany and the Eurozone will unveil the preliminary estimates of their respective November Harmonized Index of Consumer Prices (HICP), while the United States (US) will publish the October Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) - Price Index, the Federal Reserve (Fed) favorite’s inflation figure. Investors will likely limit their trading commitments ahead of inflation-related data that could define what’s next from central banks.

EUR/USD short-term technical outlook

The daily chart for EUR/USD shows bulls retain control, as technical indicators resumed their advance between positive levels after correcting extreme overbought conditions. In fact, the Relative Strength Index (RSI) indicator is entering overbought territory without signs of upward exhaustion, currently at around 69. At the same time, the 20 Simple Moving Average (SMA) keeps heading north far below the current level and is about to cross above a flat 100 SMA, usually seen as a bullish signal.

In the near term, and according to the 4-hour chart, the risk skews to the upside, although the momentum seems limited. The pair is meeting sellers around the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement of the 1.1275/1.0447 slump at 1.0960, the level to surpass to confirm another leg north. Meanwhile, technical indicators remain within positive levels, although with uneven directional strength. Finally, EUR/USD develops above all its moving averages, although the 20 SMA offers a modest upward slope, indicating near-term hesitation among buyers.

Support levels: 1.0910 1.0860 1.0825

Resistance levels: 1.0960 1.1005 1.1045

View Live Chart for EUR/USD

Author

Valeria Bednarik

FXStreet

Valeria Bednarik was born and lives in Buenos Aires, Argentina. Her passion for math and numbers pushed her into studying economics in her younger years.

AUD/USD remains below 0.7000 amid light trading

AUD/USD fills a modest bearish gap on Monday, but remains below 0.7000 in the Asian session amid holiday-thinned liquidity. The US Dollar attempts a bounce even as US bond yields pull back from multi-year highs, limiting the pair. Moreover, diminishing odds of another RBA rate hike in November cap the Aussie.

USD/JPY hovers above 158.00 amid Japan/ US holiday

USD/JPY extends its range-bound price action into a new week, trading above 158.00 as bulls remain on high alert amid speculation that authorities will step in to prop up the Japanese Yen. Meanwhile, softer US bond yields keep US Dollar bulls on the back foot and cap the pair's upside. However, geopolitical uncertainties could limit losses for the safe-haven buck amid thin liquidity due to a holiday in Japan and the US.

Gold buyers retain control as the US CPI week begins

Gold is extending its recovery from a two-month low of $4,067 into a new week on Monday, trying to remain above the $4,200 level amid a pause in the US Dollar retreat from an 18-month peak.

Cardano holds above EMAs as recovery builds

Cardano (ADA) reclaims trading above the key support zone on Monday after a 2.85% correction last week. Improving derivatives positioning and constructive technical outlook support a recovery for ADA. Derivatives data shows an improving sentiment among Cardano traders. CoinGlass’ long-to-short ratio for ADA reads 1.01 on Monday, flipping into green territory.

USD/INR: Deep in red below 96.00 as RBI rescues Indian Rupee

After opening significantly higher against the US Dollar (USD) on Monday, the Indian Rupee (INR) clings to recovery gains near 95.80. The pair remains undermined by the Reserve Bank of India’s (RBI) fresh measures to curb US Dollar demand, which has brought relief for the Indian currency.

Has Bitcoin really escaped the macro forces it was built to fight?

Over 17 years ago, Satoshi Nakamoto designed Bitcoin (BTC) on the back of a global financial crisis as an alternative to the global monetary system outside the control of central banks, governments and traditional intermediaries. This raises a key question: has Bitcoin really become independent of the macroeconomic forces it was built to challenge?