- EUR/USD has extended its sideways grind into a third straight day.
- The pair has the potential to move sharply in either direction.
- US inflation data is likely to trigger a significant market reaction.
EUR/USD has been struggling to make a decisive move since the beginning of the week with market participants remaining on the sidelines ahead of the key US inflation data. The technical outlook suggests that the pair could break out in either direction.
Although Reuters reported earlier in the day that eurozone money markets are currently fully pricing in a 50 basis points (bps) European Central Bank (ECB) rate hike in September, the shared currency is having a difficult time finding demand. Germany’s Finance Minister Christian Lindner said earlier in the day that the German economic outlook was looking fragile.
In the second half of the day, the US Bureau of Labor Statistics will release the Consumer Price Index (CPI) data for July. The annual inflation is expected to decline to 8.7% from 9.1% in June, while the Core CPI, which strips volatile food and energy prices, is forecast to move higher to 6.1% from 5.9%.
The market reaction to the inflation data should be pretty straightforward with a strong Core CPI print triggering a dollar rally and a soft reading causing the greenback to lose interest. According to the CME Group FedWatch Tool, markets are pricing in a 66.5% probability of the Fed opting for a 75 bps rate increase in September, suggesting that there is room for a significant response in the US Dollar Index if the data diverges from market consensus.
EUR/USD Technical Analysis
The symmetrical triangle that seems to have formed on the four-hour chart confirms the view that the pair is about to break out of its range. On the upside, 1.0230/1.0240 (Fibonacci 38.2% retracement of the latest downtrend, 200-period SMA on the four-hour chart) aligns as key resistance. With a weak CPI print, the pair could rise above that level and target 1.0300 (psychological level, Fibonacci 50% retracement) and 1.0370 (Fibonacci 61.8% retracement.
Significant support is located at 1.0200 (psychological level, 100-period SMA, 50-period SMA). If the dollar regathers strength on a hot inflation report, the pair could pierce through that support and extend its decline toward 1.0150 (Fibonacci 23.6% retracement) and 1.0100 (psychological level, static level)
Information on these pages contains forward-looking statements that involve risks and uncertainties. Markets and instruments profiled on this page are for informational purposes only and should not in any way come across as a recommendation to buy or sell in these assets. You should do your own thorough research before making any investment decisions. FXStreet does not in any way guarantee that this information is free from mistakes, errors, or material misstatements. It also does not guarantee that this information is of a timely nature. Investing in Open Markets involves a great deal of risk, including the loss of all or a portion of your investment, as well as emotional distress. All risks, losses and costs associated with investing, including total loss of principal, are your responsibility. The views and opinions expressed in this article are those of the authors and do not necessarily reflect the official policy or position of FXStreet nor its advertisers. The author will not be held responsible for information that is found at the end of links posted on this page.
If not otherwise explicitly mentioned in the body of the article, at the time of writing, the author has no position in any stock mentioned in this article and no business relationship with any company mentioned. The author has not received compensation for writing this article, other than from FXStreet.
FXStreet and the author do not provide personalized recommendations. The author makes no representations as to the accuracy, completeness, or suitability of this information. FXStreet and the author will not be liable for any errors, omissions or any losses, injuries or damages arising from this information and its display or use. Errors and omissions excepted.
The author and FXStreet are not registered investment advisors and nothing in this article is intended to be investment advice.
Recommended Content
Editors’ Picks
USD/JPY holds near 155.50 after Tokyo CPI inflation eases more than expected
USD/JPY is trading tightly just below the 156.00 handle, hugging multi-year highs as the Yen continues to deflate. The pair is trading into 30-plus year highs, and bullish momentum is targeting all-time record bids beyond 160.00, a price level the pair hasn’t reached since 1990.
AUD/USD stands firm above 0.6500 with markets bracing for Aussie PPI, US inflation
The Aussie Dollar begins Friday’s Asian session on the right foot against the Greenback after posting gains of 0.33% on Thursday. The AUD/USD advance was sponsored by a United States report showing the economy is growing below estimates while inflation picked up.
Gold soars as US economic woes and inflation fears grip investors
Gold prices advanced modestly during Thursday’s North American session, gaining more than 0.5% following the release of crucial economic data from the United States. GDP figures for the first quarter of 2024 missed estimates, increasing speculation that the US Fed could lower borrowing costs.
Ethereum could remain inside key range as Consensys sues SEC over ETH security status
Ethereum appears to have returned to its consolidating move on Thursday, canceling rally expectations. This comes after Consensys filed a lawsuit against the US SEC and insider sources informing Reuters of the unlikelihood of a spot ETH ETF approval in May.
Bank of Japan expected to keep interest rates on hold after landmark hike
The Bank of Japan is set to leave its short-term rate target unchanged in the range between 0% and 0.1% on Friday, following the conclusion of its two-day monetary policy review meeting for April. The BoJ will announce its decision on Friday at around 3:00 GMT.