EUR/USD Forecast: Bouncing modestly from sub-1.2000
EUR/USD Current Price: 1.2029
- German Retail Sales fell by 4.5% MoM in January, much worse than anticipated.
- A modest advance in equities prevents the dollar from advancing further.
- EUR/USD is still at risk of falling towards February low at 1.1951.
The EUR/USD pair fell to a fresh two-week low of 1.1991, as the dollar retained its positive momentum throughout the first part of the day. A modest advance in European equities helps the greenback’s rivals ahead of the US opening, with the pair trading around 1.2030.
European data disappointed, as German Retail Sales fell by 4.5% MoM in January, while the year-on-year comparison came in at -8.7%. European inflation was up by 0.9% YoY in February, according to preliminary estimates, missing the market’s expectations. The pair hold on to gains, as equities stocks keep pressuring higher. The US has a light macroeconomic calendar as it will publish the February ISM-NY Business Conditions Index and March IBD/TIPP Economic Optimism.
EUR/USD short-term technical outlook
The EUR/USD pair remains below 1.2060, the 38.2% retracement of the November/January rally, which maintains the overall risk skewed to the downside. In the near-term, and according to the 4-hour chart, the pair is well below all of its moving averages, with the 20 SMA heading firmly lower below the longer ones. Technical indicators are bouncing from oversold readings but remain well into negative levels.
Support levels: 1.1970 1.1920 1.1875
Resistance levels: 1.2060 1.2100 1.2145
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Author
Valeria Bednarik
FXStreet
Valeria Bednarik was born and lives in Buenos Aires, Argentina. Her passion for math and numbers pushed her into studying economics in her younger years.
