EUR/USD Forecast: Bears ready to strike, fresh 2021 lows at sight
EUR/USD Current price: 1.1614
- European fundamental headlines keep taking their toll on the shared currency.
- US CB Consumer Confidence is expected to have contracted to 108.4 in October.
- EUR/USD is still under pressure and could accelerate its decline once below 1.1570.
A better market mood is doing little for EUR/USD, as the pair trades in the 1.1610/20 region, pretty much unchanged on a daily basis. The greenback eases alongside US government bond yields, as the benchmark on the 10-year Treasury note is down to 1.62%. On the other hand, European stocks are rallying, pushing Wall Street higher to fresh record highs.
Fundamental data coming from the EU keeps disappointing. The European Central Bank published the Bank Lending Survey, which showed that local banks tightened access to mortgages in the three months to September and foresaw a similar picture for Q4. Also, Eurozone inflation expectations jumped to 2.05%, its highest in seven years amid rising energy prices and supply chain bottlenecks.
The US session will bring housing-related data and CB Consumer Confidence, expected at 108.4 in October, down from 109.3 in the previous month.
EUR/USD short-term technical outlook
The EUR/USD pair is stuck around a Fibonacci level, the 23.6% retracement of the 1.1908/1.1523 decline, at 1.1615. The pair’s bullish potential seems limited, although a new leg south would be confirmed with a break below 1.1571, October 18 daily low and the immediate support level. In the daily chart, the pair is barely resting above a firmly bearish 20 SMA, while the longer ones maintain their bearish slopes well above the current level. Technical indicators hover around their midlines, reflecting the absence of directional conviction.
In the near term, and according to the 4-hour chart, the risk skews to the downside. A mildly bearish 20 SMA provides resistance, as the pair rests above a flat 100 SMA. In the meantime, technical indicators have modest upward slopes but remain within negative levels.
Support levels: 1.1570 1.1525 1.1480
Resistance levels: 1.1670 1.1715 1.1750
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Author
Valeria Bednarik
FXStreet
Valeria Bednarik was born and lives in Buenos Aires, Argentina. Her passion for math and numbers pushed her into studying economics in her younger years.
