EUR/USD Forecast: Bears are gaining traction on the one-two punch from Italy and the Fed

A crisis over Italy's budget comes to the forefront and weighs on the Euro.
The US Dollar is emerging as a winner from the Fed decision.
The pair lost the 50SMA-4h, turning bearish.

Yohay Elam FXStreet

The EUR/USD is trading below 1.1700, down on the day and out of the recent range. The battle over Italy's budget that was brewing for quite some time reached the forefront.

Finance Minister Giovanni Tria wants to limit the budget deficit to 2%, adhering to EU requests. The populist government and especially the 5-Star leader Luigi di Maio wish to implement their campaign promises to enact a Citizens' Income program as well as tax cuts. Reports about a delay in a planned meeting on the budget and rumors about the resignation of Tria have sent Italian stocks and bonds down. The Euro is also suffering.

The EUR/USD is also dropping on fresh USD strength. The Fed raised rates as broadly expected and signaled another move in December and three more hikes in 2019, unchanged from the previous interest rate forecasts. However, the FOMC Statement did not include the words "accommodative policy." Markets initially saw it as a sign that the Fed will slow down the pace of rate hikes and the US Dollar dropped.

Things changed later on. Fed Chair Jerome Powell said that financial conditions are still accommodative and that the removal of the wording is only stating a fact, not a change in the outlook or the policy. He was generally bullish on the economy.

Fed Quick Analysis: Removing "accommodative" is not so dovish, USD to recover?

While markets digest these two big stories, more data is coming out. German states publish their CPI estimates during the day with the all-German number due at 12:00 GMT. ECB President Mario Draghi will speak at 13:30. He already spoke earlier in the week and sent the common currency higher as he was bullish on inflation. However, his colleague Peter Praet played his words down by saying nothing has changed.

In the US, the final version of Q2 GDP is expected to confirm the robust growth rate of 4.2%, the fastest in four years. Durable Goods Orders for August are also projected to be positive after a relatively disappointing report in July. Fed Chair Powell will speak later in the day.

EUR/USD Technical Analysis

The four-hour chart shows the pair is falling below the 50 Simple Moving Average, a bearish sign. Also, Momentum and the Relative Strength Index are turning lower.

Support awaits at 1.1685, the fresh low point of the day. 1.1650 supported the pair last week and served as resistance beforehand. 1.1604 was a stepping stone on the way up. 1.1565 and 1.1530 are next.

1.1720 supported the EUR/USD in recent days and capped it beforehand. 1.1750 was a quadruple top in July and remains significant. 1.1800 is a round number, and 1.1815 was the peak earlier in the week and the highest point since July.

More: EUR/USD may extend falls as it has no significant support – Confluence Detector

Author

Yohay Elam

FXStreet

Yohay is in Forex since 2008 when he founded Forex Crunch, a blog crafted in his free time that turned into a fully-fledged currency website later sold to Finixio.

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