EUR/USD – Euro quiet ahead of OPEC meeting, U.S job data

EUR/USD is almost unchanged in the Thursday session. Currently, the pair is trading at 1.1337, down 0.07% on the day. On the release front, German Factory Orders posted a gain of 0.3%, beating the forecast of -0.4%. In the U.S, the spotlight will be on employment releases. ADP nonfarm payrolls is expected to drop to 195 thousand, down from 227 thousand a month earlier. The strength of the ADP release could provide a clue regarding the official NFP report on Friday, which is also expected to drop sharply. Unemployment claims spiked last week at 234 thousand, but are forecast to drop to 224 thousand. Later, the ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI is expected to dip to 59.1 points. Elsewhere, OPEC members are meeting in Vienna for a second straight day.

Friday also promises to be busy. Germany releases Industrial Production, and the eurozone will publish jobless claims and GDP. The U.S will release three key employment indicators – nonfarm payrolls, wage growth and the unemployment rate. The week wraps up with UoM consumer sentiment.

After a string of disappointing releases out of Germany, there was some good news on the manufacturing front. Factory orders posted a gain of 0.3% for a second straight month. This follows a lukewarm Manufacturing PMI release earlier in the week. Although the reading of 51.8 was within expectations, it marked a fourth monthly downturn and was the lowest reading since April 2016. The global trade war has taken a bite out of German exports and a slowdown in the eurozone economy has dampened manufacturing growth in Germany. On Friday, Germany releases industrial production, which is expected to edge up to 0.3%.

Now that there is a respite in the tariff war, can the U.S. and China narrow their differences in just a few weeks? There are a host of issues that need to be addressed, including repeated charges by the U.S. that China is engaged in theft of U.S. intellectual property. The markets have been very sensitive to the trade dispute, and the upcoming negotiations between the U.S. and China, with the likely ups-and-downs, promise to have a significant effect on the currency markets.

The ‘tariff truce’ between the U.S and China is welcome news after months of an escalating trade war, but the two super-economies remain far apart on a number of issues, including U.S. accusations that China has been stealing U.S. intellectual property. All indications are that reaching a deal will be difficult. The markets have been sensitive to development in the tariff tussle between the countries, and the likely ups-and-downs in the upcoming negotiations will likely affect the movement of gold prices in the coming weeks.

 

EUR/USD Fundamentals

Thursday (December 6)

• All Day – OPEC Meetings

• 2:00 German Factory Orders. Estimate -0.4%. Actual 0.3%

• 7:30 US Challenger Job Cuts

• 8:15 US ADP Nonfarm Employment Change. Estimate 195K

• 8:30 US Revised Nonfarm Productivity. Estimate 2.3%

• 8:30 US Revised Unit Labor Costs. Estimate 1.1%

• 8:30 US Trade Balance. Estimate -55.2B

• 8:30 US Unemployment Claims. Estimate 226K

• 9:45 US Final Services PMI. Estimate 54.4

• 10:00 US ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI. Estimate 59.1

• 10:00 US Factory Orders. Estimate -1.9%

• 11:00 US Crude Oil Inventories. Estimate -1.3M

• 12:15 US FOMC Member Bostic Speaks

• 18:30 US FOMC Member Williams Speaks

• 18:45 US Federal Reserve Chair Powell Speaks

Friday (December 7)

• 2:00 German Industrial Production. Estimate 0.3%

• 5:00 Eurozone Final Employment Change. Estimate 0.2%

• 5:00 Eurozone Revised GDP. Estimate 0.2%

• 8:30 US Average Hourly Earnings. Estimate 0.3%

• 8:30 US Nonfarm Employment Change. Estimate 200K

• 8:30 US Unemployment Rate. Estimate 3.7%

• 10:00 US Preliminary UoM Consumer Sentiment. Estimate 97.1

EUR/USD Technical

S1	S2	S1	R1	R2	R3
1.1120	1.1212	1.1300	1.1434	1.1553	1.1685

EUR/USD was flat in the Asian session and has ticked lower in European trade

• 1.1300 is providing support

• 1.1434 is the next resistance line

• Current range: 1.1300 to 1.1434

Further levels in both directions:

• Below: 1.1300, 1.1212, 1.1120 and 1.0992

• Above: 1.1434, 1.1553 and 1.1685