EUR/USD analysis: risk sentiment toss and turns to keep leading the way

Valeria Bednarik FXStreet

EUR/USD Current price: 1.2280

US Nonfarm Payroll came in below market's expectations.
Escalating tensions between the US and China about a trade war continue to be the main market motor.

The EUR/USD pair gained ground on Friday, although it was not enough to prevent it to close in the red for a second consecutive week. The pair traded as low as 1.2215 at the beginning of the day and ahead of the US Nonfarm Payroll report, which later resulted disappointed: the US economy added just 103,000 new jobs, against the 193K expected, the unemployment rate remained unchanged at 4.1%, while wages' growth was in-line with market's forecast. At the same time that employment data was out, US President Trump threatened to impose tariffs of $100B on another batch of Chinese imports, triggering risk aversion and denting demand for the high-yielding euro, despite a weakening dollar. This upcoming week will have a busy macroeconomic calendar, although there won't be any first-tier report that can overshadow risk-related trading.

Early Sunday, US President Trump twitted that he and Chinese President Xi Ping are "friends," adding that " Taxes will become Reciprocal & a deal will be made on Intellectual Property,(sic)" which may ease fears at the beginning of the week and trigger demand for high-yielding assets, although the back and forth from these last couple of weeks have been dizziness, and uncertainty will prevail.

As for the technical outlook, the EUR/USD pair daily chart shows that it found support around a bullish 100 DMA, the first time testing it this year, but also that it settled below the 20 DMA, which barely turned lower. Technical indicators in the mentioned chart remain within negative territory, although with no clear directional strength, anyway leaning the scale toward the downside. Shorter term, and according to the 4 hours chart, the pair presents a neutral stance, as it settled above a now flat 20 SMA, while technical indicators are stuck around their mid-lines. Steady gains beyond 1.2300 could favor an extension up to 1.2370, while below 1.2250, the pair will likely extend its slide below the 1.2210 region.

Support levels: 1.2250 1.2210 1.2165

Resistance levels: 1.2295 1.2335 1.2370

View Live Chart for the EUR/USD

Author

Valeria Bednarik

FXStreet

Valeria Bednarik was born and lives in Buenos Aires, Argentina. Her passion for math and numbers pushed her into studying economics in her younger years.

AUD/USD consolidates above 0.7000; remains close to monthly top

AUD/USD holds steady above 0.7000 during the Asian session on Friday, trading just below the previous day's monthly low amid diverging forces. A hawkish RBA continues to support the Aussie, while the recent decline in US bond yields keeps the US Dollar depressed near a three-week low. However, oil-driven inflation fears reinforce Fed hike bets, which, along with geopolitical risks, could benefit the safe-haven buck and cap the currency pair.

USD/JPY drops to an over one-month low, around 156.00 after Japan's CPI report

USD/JPY attracts heavy follow-through selling on Friday, dropping to the 156.00 neighborhood, a one-month low, as Japan's National CPI report reaffirms bets for an imminent BoJ rate hike and boosts the Japanese Yen. Moreover, the recent steep fall in US bond yields counters hawkish Fed expectations and geopolitical risks, undermining the US Dollar and exerting additional pressure on the currency pair.

Gold seems vulnerable near August lows; eyes $4,000 break amid Fed hike bets

Gold touches a fresh low since early August during the Asian session on Friday, eyeing the key $4,000 psychological mark. Oil-driven inflation fears reinforce December Fed hike bets and continue to undermine the non-yielding bullion, which fails to benefit from the recent steep fall in US bond yields and the prevailing US Dollar selling bias. Moreover, the overnight breakdown below a trading-range support backs the case for further depreciation.

Bitcoin falls 4% as chip stocks plunge 6.7% and oil surges

Bitcoin (BTC) fell below $82,000 on Thursday as the crypto market joined a broader market sell-off driven by concerns over artificial intelligence (AI) spending, rising oil prices and escalating geopolitical tensions involving the US and Iran. The top crypto fell 4% to $81,130 as macro fears weighed on prices across the digital asset market.

The Bank of England just got its clearest reason to hike. Here's what it's really watching

UK inflation as measured by the CPI accelerated to 3.5% YoY in September, up from 3.1% in August, according to the Office for National Statistics. This is the highest level since October 2025, exceeding economists' expectations of 3.4% and pushing inflation further from the BoE's 2% target.

What November 3 means for the Fed's rate path and the US Dollar

The USD faces a decisive period ahead of the November 3 midterm elections. While markets anticipate another interest rate increase from the Fed in December, the battle for control of Congress could reshape fiscal policy expectations and, indirectly, the path of US monetary policy in 2027.