EUR/USD analysis: relief keeps the EUR afloat, but it can't push it higher

Valeria Bednarik FXStreet

EUR/USD Current Price: 1.1311

A better market mood made safe-haven currencies gave back some of Friday's gains.
German Business Climate improved in March despite discouraging macroeconomic figures.

The EUR/USD pair peaked at 1.1331, settling around 1.3110 by the end of the day. The advance was a mixture of a positive German report and easing dollar demand as the dismal performance of equities that started Friday came to a halt during London trading hours, with Wall Street posting a modest intraday slide, off its daily lows. As for data, the German IFO survey showed that the Business Climate Index rose to 99.6 in March from an upwardly revised 98.7 in the previous month. The Current Assessment improved to 103.8 while Expectations surged to 95.6, all of them beating the market's consensus. The US released the Chicago Fed National Activity Index which came in at-0.29 in February, while January's figure was upwardly revised to -0.25 from -0.47, and the Dallas Fed Manufacturing Business Index for March, which printed 8.3, better than the 7.0 expected. The pair retreated ahead of the close amid the absence of a bullish catalyst and a heavy Pound.

Tuesday will bring the German GFK Consumer Confidence Survey, seen at 10.8 in April, unchanged from the previous month, while the US will release Housing Starts and Building Permits for February, and the latest CB Consumer Confidence Index.

The EUR/USD pair is struggling now around the 50% retracement of the 1.1175/1.1447 rally, with this Monday's recovery looking corrective after Friday's slump, as technical indicators in the 4 hours chart have recovered from oversold readings, with the Momentum heading higher well below its mid-line and the RSI having already lost upward strength, now consolidating around 45. Furthermore, the pair was unable to clear the 100 and 200 SMA, which anyway lack directional strength, and continues developing below a bearish 20 SMA, which now nears the 38.2% retracement of the mentioned rally, reinforcing the strength of the static resistance level at 1.1445.

Support levels: 1.1280 1.1230 1.1190

Resistance levels: 1.1345 1.1385 1.1420

View Live Chart for the EUR/USD

Author

Valeria Bednarik

FXStreet

Valeria Bednarik was born and lives in Buenos Aires, Argentina. Her passion for math and numbers pushed her into studying economics in her younger years.

EUR/USD flirts with daily highs, retargets 1.1900

EUR/USD regains upside traction, returning to the 1.1880 zone and refocusing its attention to the key 1.1900 barrier. The pair’s slight gains comes against the backdrop of a humble decline in the US Dollar as investors continue to assess the latest US CPI readings and the potential Fed’s rate path.

GBP/USD remains well bid around 1.3650

GBP/USD maintains its upside momentum in place, hovering around daily highs near 1.3650 and setting aside part of the recent three-day drop. Cable’s improved sentiment comes on the back of the Greenback’s irresolute price action, while recent hawkish comments from the BoE’s Pill also collaborate with the uptick.

Gold clings to gains just above $5,000/oz

Gold is reclaiming part of the ground lost on Wednesday’s marked decline, as bargain-hunters keep piling up and lifting prices past the key $5,000 per troy ounce. The precious metal’s move higher is also underpinned by the slight pullback in the US Dollar and declining US Treasury yields across the curve.

Crypto Today: Bitcoin, Ethereum, XRP in choppy price action, weighed down by falling institutional interest

Bitcoin's upside remains largely constrained amid weak technicals and declining institutional interest. Ethereum trades sideways above $1,900 support with the upside capped below $2,000 amid ETF outflows.

Week ahead – Data blitz, Fed Minutes and RBNZ decision in the spotlight

US GDP and PCE inflation are main highlights, plus the Fed minutes. UK and Japan have busy calendars too with focus on CPI. Flash PMIs for February will also be doing the rounds. RBNZ meets, is unlikely to follow RBA’s hawkish path.

Ripple Price Forecast: XRP potential bottom could be in sight

Ripple edges up above the intraday low of $1.35 at the time of writing on Friday amid mixed price actions across the crypto market. The remittance token failed to hold support at $1.40 the previous day, reflecting risk-off sentiment amid a decline in retail and institutional sentiment.