EUR/USD Analysis: recovering in range, upside limited

Valeria Bednarik FXStreet

EUR/USD Current price: 1.1024

The German ZEW survey showed that Business Sentiment Improved in September.
The market’s mood remains sour amid Middle East tensions and ahead of the Fed.
EUR/USD recovering within range but still at risk of falling further.

The EUR/USD pair is trading around 1.1020, recovering from a daily low of 1.0989. The pair is confined to quite a limited range this Tuesday, amid the looming US Federal Reserve monetary policy decision, to be announced this Wednesday. The ongoing advance seems related to some positioning ahead of the event, rather than to a fresh catalyst. Sentiment remains sour amid tensions in the Middle East, with crude oil prices consolidating at four-month highs and equities developing in the red.

Germany released the September ZEW survey which showed that Business Sentiment improved by more than anticipated, as the index resulted at -22.5 in the country and at -22.4 for the whole Union. However, German’s Current Situation deteriorated further to -19.9 from -13.5 in August. During the upcoming hours, the US will release August Industrial Production and Capacity Utilization, seen up by 0.2% and 77.6% respectively, better than in the previous month. The country will also release July Total Net Tic Flows.

EUR/USD short-term technical outlook

The EUR/USD pair is trading at around the 38.2% retracement of its latest daily decline, with the risk still skewed to the downside according to technical readings in the 4 hours chart, as it holds below all of its moving averages, and with the 20 and 100 SMA converging with a Fibonacci level at around 1.1045, reinforcing the area as resistance. Technical indicators in the mentioned time-frame remain within negative levels without clear directional strength. The bearish case could turn stronger if the pair loses 1.0980, although movements are expected to be limited ahead of the outcome of the Fed’s decision.

Support levels: 1.0980 1.0955 1.0920

Resistance levels: 1.1045 1.1080 1.1120

View Live chart for the EUR/USD

Author

Valeria Bednarik

FXStreet

Valeria Bednarik was born and lives in Buenos Aires, Argentina. Her passion for math and numbers pushed her into studying economics in her younger years.

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