EUR/USD analysis: painfully slow slide continues this Wednesday

EUR/USD Current price: 1.1791

  • US ADP survey posted an encouraging result ahead of NFP.
  • EU Q3 GDP revision not expected to surprise.

The greenback is the overall winner this Wednesday, up against all of its major rivals except the Japanese yen. The EUR/USD pair fell to 1.1780 its lowest in two weeks mid-US session, bouncing modestly ahead of the close but ending it down for a second consecutive day. Data was mixed in both economies as German factory orders rose in October by 0.5%, surpassing market's forecast of a 0.3% decline, but the annual advance resulted at 6.9%, below the previous 9.5% and the expected 7.0%. In the US, the ADP private employment survey resulted encouraging, as it indicated that 190,000 new jobs were added, slightly above the 185K expected. However, the unit labor cost was revised to -0.2% for the third quarter of the year from a previous estimate of 0.5%, down for a second consecutive quarter, a bad sign for hopes of increasing inflation. This Thursday, attention will centre on EU final Q3 GDP, expected unchanged from preliminary estimates, with little in the US ahead of the Friday's Nonfarm Payroll report.

The pair retains its bearish stance heading into the Asian opening, below its 100 SMA in the daily chart for the first time in three weeks. Shorter term, and according to the 4 hours chart, the risk also leans towards the downside, as the price has fallen further below its 20 and 100 SMAs, with the shortest gaining downward traction above the largest, as technical indicators continue nearing oversold territory. The 1.1820/30 region is now the immediate resistance ahead of the 1.1870 price zone, where selling interest capped the upside ever since the week started.

Support levels: 1.1760 1.1725 1.1685

Resistance levels: 1.1825 1.1870 1.1910                                                                                                            

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