EUR/USD analysis: more wait-and-see ahead of US Payrolls

Valeria Bednarik FXStreet

EUR/USD Current price: 1.1205

The EUR/USD pair held around 1.1200 this Wednesday, despite the doubtful ECB's tightening headlines that triggered the recovery and generally encouraging data released in the US. In Europe, the final Markit composite PMI for the region indicated that the rate of economic expansion across the euro zone eased to a 20-month low in September, as growth slowed in Germany, Italy, Spain and Ireland. The composite PMI posted 52.6 in September, down from 52.9 in August. Also, EU dropped by less-than-expected in August, down by 0.1% compared to July, and up by 0.6% on a year-on-year basis, down from previous 1.8%.

In the US, the ADP survey came in slightly disappointing, as the private sector employment increased by 154,000 in September, slightly below the 166K expected. Still, economic activity in the non-manufacturing sector grew strongly in September, as the ISM PMI came in at 57.1 against previous 51.5, while new orders for US factory goods increased in August, up by 0.2% from a downwardly revised 1.4% increase in July, signaling that the US economy is beginning to pick up again.

The pair traded within a well-limited range, retaining the neutral status-quo according to intraday technical readings, although with a slight inclination towards the downside, as in the 4 hours chart, the price was unable to settle above the congestion of moving averages between 1.1210 and 1.1230, while technical indicators were rejected by their mid-lines during an early attempt to recover ground. The daily descendant trend line coming from this year high stands around 1.1245 for this Thursday, and ahead of the US Nonfarm Payroll report to be released next Friday, seems unlikely the pair will move out of its usual range during these upcoming sessions.

Support levels: 1.1190 1.1160 1.1120

Resistance levels: 1.1245 1.1280 1.1335

Author

Valeria Bednarik

FXStreet

Valeria Bednarik was born and lives in Buenos Aires, Argentina. Her passion for math and numbers pushed her into studying economics in her younger years.

GBP/USD loses momentum, flirts with 1.3200

GBP/USD is struggling to maintain its positive bias on Thursday, retreating toward the 1.3200 region in response to the pick in the buying interest around the Greenback. That said, Cable remains under scrutiny as cautious market sentiment keeps investors focused on the US-Iran conflict and political effervescence in the UK.

EUR/USD trims gains, challenges 1.1400

EUR/USD now gives away part of its earlier advance, receding toward the 1.1400 contention zone on Thursday. Meanwhile, the pair’s recovery comes amid extra losses in the US Dollar, at the time when while investors continue to monitor developments in the Middle East and sentiment surrounding global technology stocks.

Gold remains bid and close to $4,100

Gold accelerates its recovery and approaches the key $4,000 mark per troy ounce at the end of the week, adding to Thursday’s advance. However, expectations for a hawkish Fed remain steady and keep the yellow metal’s potential upside contained.

Crypto Today: Bitcoin at $60,000, Ethereum at $1,500, and XRP at $1 face a make-or-break test

Bitcoin (BTC), Ethereum (ETH), and Ripple (XRP) are trading in the red on Friday after three consecutive days of losses, testing their respective make-or-break support levels.

Week ahead – NFP report to challenge Dollar strength and the hawkish Fed

Dollar strength dominates markets, as the hawkish Fed overshadows geopolitics and lower oil prices. NFP week could drive September Fed hike expectations and boost market volatility. The euro lacks fresh bullish catalysts, all eyes on the preliminary inflation report and the ECB Forum.

Regime change: Inside Kevin Warsh's first move to make the Fed unreadable on purpose

The rate did not move. That was the least interesting thing about Kevin Warsh's first meeting in charge of the Fed. The FOMC held its benchmark at 3.50%-3.75% for the fourth straight meeting, exactly as priced, and then the new chair used his first press conference to dismantle the machinery the market has leaned on for a decade.