EUR/USD analysis: bearish within range ahead of NFP report

Valeria Bednarik FXStreet

EUR/USD Current price: 1.2306

The EUR/USD pair held for one more week inside the range established early February.
EU March preliminary inflation and US Nonfarm Payroll report take center stage this week.

The EUR/USD pair closed the first quarter of 2018 at around 1.2300, having spent one more week inside the range established early February. The dollar gained this past week amid profit-taking ahead of the quarterly close, yet, as commented multiple times there are no real reasons for dollar's strength. The lack of direction of the pair is due to speculative interest being wary about pushing the common currency much higher, as the ECB insists on keeping QE in place. German inflation released last Thursday supported their case as March preliminary CPI came below expected, up 0.4% MoM and 1.5% YoY, when harmonized with the EU. There was no activity on Friday amid the Easter Holiday, and while the US will resume activity on Monday, Europe will only return on Tuesday. In the data front, the EU March preliminary CPI and the US Nonfarm Payroll report will take center stage.

Technically, the pair presents a neutral stance in the daily chart, but with an increased risk toward the downside, as it settled below the 20 SMA, which anyway remains flat, while technical indicators also lack directional strength, but within bearish territory. Shorter term, and according to the 4 hours chart, the pair is biased lower, as it ended below all of its moving averages, with the 20 SMA gaining bearish strength above the current level, while the Momentum indicator turned south below its mid-line, and the RSI consolidates around 40.

Support levels: 1.2290 1.2250 1.2210

Resistance levels: 1.2335 1.2370 1.2415

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Author

Valeria Bednarik

FXStreet

Valeria Bednarik was born and lives in Buenos Aires, Argentina. Her passion for math and numbers pushed her into studying economics in her younger years.

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