EUR/CAD: Two-year bullish sequence extends from the blue box

Elliott Wave Forecast Team ElliottWave-Forecast.com

EURCAD has maintained a bullish sequence from the low in August 2022. From that low, the bullish sequence could either complete a 3-wave or a 5-wave structure. Based on the path of least resistance, the price should complete at least a 3-swing sequence. On the weekly chart, we identified the first swing from the August 2022 low to the April 2023 high as wave ((A)). Afterward, a pullback occurred and completed in September 2023, as wave ((B)).

Since September 2023 low, the pair has started the third swing, which we identify as wave ((C)). Wave ((C)) could extend as high as 1.58, which is 805 pips above the current price of 1.4995. With this in mind, we plan to buy pullbacks in 3, 7, or 11 swings along the path of wave ((C)). However, before last week’s rally, we had already shared a trade setup with our members.

EUR/CAD four-hour analysis, 08.29.2024

EURCAD H4

After the price broke above the top of wave ((A)) on both the weekly and daily charts, we informed our members in live analyses and trading rooms that the stage was set to buy the next pullback. The pullback matured about a month later. On August 29, 2024, we shared the H4 chart with members, expecting to go LONG from the blue box. The price reached the blue box, and the LONG trade was triggered with the parameters we provided in the trading journal. Our stop loss was set below the blue box. Additionally, as usual, we planned to take partial profit at 50% of wave (c) of ((iv)).

EUR/CAD four-hour analysis, 09.11.2024

EURCAD H4

The chart above shows how EURCAD bounced from the blue box and reached 50% of wave (c). As a result, members who went LONG have already closed half of their position in profit, with the remaining half adjusted to the low of wave (c). This is now a risk-free trade, allowing traders to allocate risk elsewhere. Moving forward, we expect the bullish sequence to extend as an impulse wave ((v)) above the August 5 high. Therefore, as long as the bullish sequence remains intact, we are looking to buy from the dips.

Author

Elliott Wave Forecast Team

ElliottWave-Forecast.com

AUD/USD hits nine-week lows below 0.7000 on RBA Bullock's remarks

AUD/USD reverses a brief uptick and turns lower to hit nine-week lows below 0.7000 in the European morning on Tuesday, as traders digest cautious remarks from Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) Governor Michele Bullock during the press conference. Earlier on, the RBA raised the cash rate to 4.60%, as widely expected, leaving the door open to further rate hikes if needed.

USD/JPY consolidates near 157.50 as a bullish USD counters intervention risks

USD/JPY struggles to capitalize on the overnight bounce from a one-week low, consolidating around 157.50 in the Asian session on Tuesday. Trump's concerns about the Japanese Yen's weakness fueled speculation about another US-Japan joint intervention. This, along with the hawkish BoJ, underpins the JPY and caps the currency pair. Meanwhile, rising Fed rate-hike bets and oil-driven inflation fears continue to push US bond yields to multi-year highs, keeping the US Dollar pinned near a two-month high and supporting the pair.

Gold regains some traction; focus remains on $4,100

Gold manages to gather some composure and bounces off recent lows near the key $4,100 mark per troy ounce on Tuesday. The move higher in the precious metal comes despite the firmer US Dollar and rising US Treasury yields across the board, while escalating geopolitical tensions appear to limit the downside potential.