EUR/AUD rallied on Thursday and Friday, but hit resistance at 1.5690, near the downside resistance line drawn from the high of October 20th, and then it retreated. In our view, as long as the rate continues to trade below that line, the downtrend remains intact and thus, we will adopt a cautiously bearish approach for now.
If the bears are strong enough to push the battle below 1.5510, marked by the low of February 18th, this may confirm the case for further declines and may initially pave the way towards the 1.5405 territory marked by the inside swing high of last Tuesday. If that barrier is not able to stop the decline either, then we may experience extensions towards the 1.5295 level, or the 1.5250 hurdle, marked by Thursday’s low.
Shifting attention to our short-term oscillators, we see that the RSI turned down and fell back below its 70 line, while the MACD, although above both its zero and trigger lines, shows signs of topping as well. Both indicators suggest that last week’s upside speed is decreasing, which adds to the case of seeing some further declines, at least in the short run.
In order to start examining the case of a bullish reversal, we would like to see a clear close above 1.5690. This may also take the rate above the aforementioned downside line and may encourage advances towards the high of February 5th, at 1.5765. Another break, above 1.5765, may set the stage for extensios towards the peak of February 2nd, at 1.5895, or the high of January 28th, at 1.5945.
JFDBANK.com - One-stop Multi-asset Experience for Trading and Investment Services
The content we produce does not constitute investment advice or investment recommendation (should not be considered as such) and does not in any way constitute an invitation to acquire any financial instrument or product. JFD Group, its affiliates, agents, directors, officers or employees are not liable for any damages that may be caused by individual comments or statements by JFD Group analysts and assumes no liability with respect to the completeness and correctness of the content presented. The investor is solely responsible for the risk of his investment decisions. Accordingly, you should seek, if you consider appropriate, relevant independent professional advice on the investment considered. The analyses and comments presented do not include any consideration of your personal investment objectives, financial circumstances or needs. The content has not been prepared in accordance with the legal requirements for financial analyses and must therefore be viewed by the reader as marketing information. JFD Group prohibits the duplication or publication without explicit approval.
72,99% of the retail investor accounts lose money when trading CFDs with this provider. You should consider whether you can afford to take the high risk of losing your money. Please read the full Risk Disclosure: https://www.jfdbank.com/en/legal/risk-disclosure
Recommended Content
Editors’ Picks
EUR/USD clings to daily gains above 1.0650
EUR/USD gained traction and turned positive on the day above 1.0650. The improvement seen in risk mood following the earlier flight to safety weighs on the US Dollar ahead of the weekend and helps the pair push higher.
GBP/USD recovers toward 1.2450 after UK Retail Sales data
GBP/USD reversed its direction and advanced to the 1.2450 area after touching a fresh multi-month low below 1.2400 in the Asian session. The positive shift seen in risk mood on easing fears over a deepening Iran-Israel conflict supports the pair.
Gold holds steady at around $2,380 following earlier spike
Gold stabilized near $2,380 after spiking above $2,400 with the immediate reaction to reports of Israel striking Iran. Meanwhile, the pullback seen in the US Treasury bond yields helps XAU/USD hold its ground.
Bitcoin Weekly Forecast: BTC post-halving rally could be partially priced in Premium
Bitcoin price shows no signs of directional bias while it holds above $60,000. The fourth BTC halving is partially priced in, according to Deutsche Bank’s research.
Week ahead – US GDP and BoJ decision on top of next week’s agenda
US GDP, core PCE and PMIs the next tests for the Dollar. Investors await BoJ for guidance about next rate hike. EU and UK PMIs, as well as Australian CPIs also on tap.