ES SP500 future — Breakout to start a bull run? Analog inside [Video]

Ming Jong Tey Independent Analyst

6 Apr 2020 recap — S&P500 e-mini futures (ES) had a great rally to take out the immediate resistance at 2525 during the non-Regular Trading Hour ( RTH ) and to further commit above 2600–2635 during the RTH. Since ES broke out the trading range between 2440–2630, it is expected to test the higher target at 2700–2770.

It is worth noting that the upside target at 2700–2770 coincides with :

Fibonacci retracement of around 50% from the top (3397) to the selling climax ( SC ) low of 2174, as shown in the daily chart.
Axis line or flip zone where there is strong resistance and supply available, as shown in the H4 chart.

During the crash in Jan 2018, ES did up thrust twice before it came down to test the selling climax low. Using Jan 2018’s event as an analog, we should be aware that an up thrust is a possible scenario.

Bias — Slightly bullish. Expect ES to test the upside target but also prepare n up thrust bearish scenario similar to 2018.

Key levels — Resistance: 2700–2770 Support: 2600–2635. Swing high and swing low from smaller timeframe.

Potential intraday setup — look for an up thrust or test of the key levels / smaller timeframe for a short entry. Possible long entry at the support should it happen.

Author

Ming Jong Tey

Independent Analyst

Ming Jong Tey has been trading since 2008. He started his learning journey from technical analysis (indicators, Fibonacci, etc...) to value investing. Throughout his journey, he develops an interest in price action with chart pattern trading.

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