Equities tread cautiously after last week’s tech rout

Asia market update: Equities tread cautiously after last week’s tech rout; NVDA CEO probe assessed; CN begins to affirm certain terms from the Busan trade truce; JP megabanks to report earnings.

General trends and developments

- Cautious equity rebound seen after Taiwan announced market stabilization measures late on Friday. Trump continues to preach diplomacy regarding Iran. Traders are, also, assessing the possible effects from the Nvidia CEO probe.

- Over the weekend, Nvidia released a statement opening a probe into the affair CEO Jensen Huang later confirmed with alleged Chinese spy connected to Chinese intelligence. An Nvidia spokesperson announced news of probe will not reduce Nvidia’s efficiency. South Korea’s Industry Vice Minister stated the Issues affecting Nvidia will not affect South Korea's contracted GPU supply from the company.

- NZD has been supported, as the ruling coalition is slightly ahead amid the close elections held over the weekend. Even still, uncertainty remains prevalent. New Zealand faces weeks of political uncertainty as national elections remain 'too close to call' [press].

- In summary, New Zealand 2026 general election preliminary results were released on Saturday 7th November, with voting closed at 19:00pm NZDT. The preliminary results consisting of ~2.42M votes, indicated that 49.91% of total votes leaned right-wing and 49.19% of the total votes leaned left-wing (amounting to 91.10% of total votes accounting for the top 8 political parties in New Zealand). Incumbent Prime Minister Christoper Luxon’s New Zealand National Party (center-right party established in 1936) receiving the second most majority of votes at 29.21%, trailing behind the Labor Party (center-left) at 29.36% of total votes. The final voting results (including the ~399K special votes), are scheduled for Friday, November 27th, 2026.

- JGB yields rise as equities have rebounded in early Asia, following last week’s US midterm election induced TECH rout. On Fri, Japan’s GPIF [world largest pension fund] disclosed that its end of Q2 domestic bond allocation was 26.49% v 25.59% q/q. The increase was, however, attributed to one-off factors.

- BOJ rate increase expectations decline as Ueda continues to avoid giving a Dec rate hike signal. In his remarks on Friday, the BOJ Gov declined to comment on last week’s AI-related technology sell-off.

- China inflation data was mixed: Weak demand and lower food prices have continued to keep a lid on consumer price inflation, as the Oct figure remained below the ~2% target. PPI rose to the highest level since Jun 2022 on the continued impact of higher energy prices.

- China’s October FX reserves increased to $3.405T (vs. $3.413Te), +0.14% y/y, gold reserves declined to $306.4B (vs. $323.5B m/m), while the gold reserves in terms of volume increased to 78.3M troy oz (vs. 77.5M troy oz m/m). The Chinese State Administration of Foreign Exchange stated that the exchange rate conversion and asset price changes combined, increased the scale of foreign exchange reserves for the month. (**Note: The U.S. Dollar Index (DXZ6) declined on November 3rd by approximately -0.17% to 101.550 between 16:30-20:00pm EST due to the U.S. Democratic Party winning both Senate and House, before gradually recovering over the past week to ~102.000.).

- China’s Ministry of Finance (MOF) announced that it will extend the suspension of additional 24% tariffs on U.S. goods by a further two months, effective from November 10th, 2026. Additionally, MOF stated to maintain the 10% tariffs on certain U.S. goods. (**Reminder: Under the Busan agreement a year-ago, U.S. and China announced an agreement to a one-year suspension of the additional 24% reciprocal tariffs imposed on each other's goods, effective on approximately November 10th, 2025.).

-Asian corporate earnings: -Japan takes center stage in the penultimate week in earnings season, with all three of its megabanks - Mitsubishi UFJ Financial Group (8306.T - 4.02% of TOPIX Index), Sumitomo Mitsui Financial Group (8316.T - 2.58% of TOPIX Index) and Mizuho Financial Group (8411.T - 2.12% of TOPIX Index) - reporting Q2 earnings, alongside other major financial banking names including Softbank Group Corp (9984.T - 2.16% of TOPIX Index). Additionally, China’s largest company in terms of market capitalization, Kweichow Moutai (600519.SH - 3.84% of CSI 300 Index ) has its Q3 Earnings Presentation, while Semiconductor Manufacturing International Corporation (0981.HK - 1.66% of HSI Index) reports Q3 earnings.

- In Taiwanese markets, the benchmark stock index TAIEX opened +2.3%. This followed from Taiwan activating the stock stabilization fund on Friday, whilst raising the minimum short selling requirement from 90% (vs. 130% prior). (**Note: According to Article 4 of the Act, the Taiwan National Financial Stabilization Fund is capped at NT$500B ($15.14B), comprised of NT$200B ($6.05B) in borrowings from financial institutions collateralized by National Treasury-held stocks, and up to NT$300B ($9.08B) in borrowings drawn from uninvested capital across major public systems.).

- Looking ahead this week (Asian-weighted focus, EST/EDT), key data releases include the JP BoJ Oct 29-30th Summary of Opinions on Monday November 9th, US Oct CPI & Core CPI followed by the CN Oct Trade Balance & Trade Balance - USD on Tuesday November 10th, and US Oct PPI & Core PPI on Friday November 13th.

- Additionally, Malaysia markets will be closed on Monday, while India markets will be closed on Tuesday in APAC due to national holidays.

- US equity FUTs +0.1% to +0.4% during Asia trading.

Looking ahead (Asian-weighted focus, using EST/EDT time-zone)

-Sun November 8th: (Sun night, JP Oct FX Reserves - USD, AU Sept Building Approvals, CN Oct CPI & PPI, PH Q3 GDP, ID Oct Consumer Confidence, JP Sept Prelim Leading Index, TW Oct Trade Balance).

-Mon November 9th: DE Sept Trade Balance, EU ECOFIN & Eurogroup Meetings, MX Oct CPI & PPI, PH Oct FX Reserves - USD, CO Oct CPI, (Mon night, AU Nov Westpac Consumer Sentiment, JP Sept Household Spending, JP Oct Current Account & Adj Current Account, JP BoJ Oct 29-30th Summary of Opinions, AU Oct NAB Business Confidence, ID Sept Retail Sales, JP 30-Year JGB Auction, MY Sept Industrial Production).

-Tue November 10th: NL Oct CPI & Sept Manufacturing Production, FR Q3 Unemployment Rate, BR BCB Nov 3-4th Copom Meeting Minutes, US Oct CPI & Core CPI, CN Oct Trade Balance & Trade Balance - USD, US WASDE Report, US EIA Short-Term Energy Outlook, US 10-Year Note Auction, CA BOC Oct 28th Summary of Deliberations, NZ RBNZ Financial Stability Report, (Tue night, KR Oct Unemployment Rate, AU Q3 Home Loans, MY Sept Unemployment Rate).

-Wed November 11th: NL Sept Trade Balance, DE Oct CPI, US OPEC Monthly Report, MX Sept Industrial Production, RU Sept Trade Balance, (Wed night, JP Oct PPI, AU Nov MI Inflation Expectations, JP 5-Year JGB Auction, TH Oct Consumer Confidence).

-Thu November 12th: UK Q3 Preliminary GDP & Sept Industrial Production & Trade Balance, EU ECB Economic Bulletin & Economic Forecasts, IN Oct CPI, DE Sept Current Account, BR Oct CPI, RU Central Bank Reserves - USD, US Initial Jobless Claims, US 30-Year Bond Auction, (Thu night, KR Oct Export & Import Price Index, NZ Oct Business PMI, KR Sept M2 & M3 Money Supply, TH Oct Consumer Confidence).

-Fri November 13th: FR Oct CPI, ES Oct CPI, HK Q3 GDP, PL Q3 Preliminary GDP & Oct CPI, US IEA Monthly Report, CN Oct New Yuan Loans & Total Social Financing & M2 Money Stock, EU Q3 Prelim GDP & Employment Change & Sept Trade Balance, EU Leaders Summit, US Oct PPI & Core PPI, CA Sept Capacity Utilization Rate & Manufacturing Sales & Wholesale Sales, CO Sept Industrial Production & Retail Sales, RU Q3 Prelim GDP & Oct CPI.

-Sat November 14th: (Sat night, KR Oct Trade Balance).

Holidays in Asia this week

- Mon November 9th: Malaysia.

-Tue November 10th: India.

Headlines/economic data

Australia/New Zealand

-(NZ) New Zealand faces weeks of political uncertainty as national elections 'too close to call' - press [weekend update].

China/Hong Kong

-(HK) Hang Seng Index opens +0.6% at 24,626.

-(CN) Shanghai Composite Index opens +0.3% at 3,659.

-(CN) CHINA OCT CPI Y/Y: 0.7% V 0.8%E ; PPI Y/Y: 5.7% v 5.3%e.

-(CN) China Oct Foreign Reserves: $3.405T V $3.413TE [weekend update].

-(US) Treasury Sec Bessent confirms spoke with Vice Premier He Lifeng about US China relationship; Told them to fully, immediately honor its commitments reached in Busan; Doesn't indicate which Chinese actions US is concerned about [Nov 6th].

-(CN) US warns China it must immediately meet the terms of the Busan trade truce - FT.

-(CN) China removes Li Lecheng from Industry Min post - press [**TTN Note: His removal from the ministerial post follows his Sep 23rd appointment as Anhui’s Communist Party chief, so it appears to formalize an already-announced move rather than signal an abrupt exit from government] (Nov 6th).

-(CN) China to enhance stability of stock market - State TV [Nov 6th].

Japan

-(JP) Nikkei 225 Index opens +0.8% at 57,811.

-(JP) Bank of Japan (BOJ) Gov Ueda: Current account underwent a striking shift and is now driven by income flows - IMF conf; Does not comment on economy, policy in speech; Decliners to comment on AI events over past few days; In general AI has been positive demand shock for our Japanese economy though we will have to look at supply side factors as well; For financial stability I worry about cyber risks; We have been identifying vulnerable areas, including some small banks and small firms that have not done enough to protect against cyber risks; Have seen a sharp rise in Japan cyber attacks in the past 1-2 months [comments from Nov 6th].

-(JP) Japan sells ¥3.00T vs. ¥3.00T indicated in 6-Month Bills; Avg Yield: 1.3847% v 1.4051% prior, bid-to-cover: 3.64x v 4.03x prior.

-(JP) Japan MOF issued Foreign Exchange Intervention Operations (July-September 2026): confirmed the FX interventions from late Jul-early Aug.

-(JP) Japan end-October Foreign Reserves: $1.18T v $1.18T prior.

Korea

-(KR) Kospi Index opens -0.5% at 5,034.

-(KR) South Korea Industry Vice Minister: Issues affecting Nvidia currently won't affect South Korea's contracted GPU supply from company.

-(KR) South Korea Finance Minister: $10B remittance for nuclear project in US will be done only after the business feasibility review fully completed.

-(KR) South Korea sells 3-year Bonds: Avg Yield: 3.645% v 3.940% prior.

Other Asia

-(PH) Philippines Q3 GDP Q/Q: 0.1% v 0.8%e; Y/Y: 2.1% v 3.1%e.

-(PH) Philippines Economic Planning Chief Balisacan: Growth needs to reach 6.3% in Q4 to hit 2026 target.

North America

-Nvidia [NVDA]: US President Trump: Believes CEO Huang should stay on as the co's CEO [ **Reminder: Nvidia CEO faces probe over affair with alleged Chinese spy - Press].

-(US) Trump: Democrats are threatening Cabinet members with impeachment and threatening Republican donors; This is 'lawfare' and "extortion at the highest level" - Truth Social [weekend update].

-(US) Trump: Expect "very little" departures from the Cabinet [weekend update].

-(US) Trump: I have offered UFC CEO Dana White the job of Press Secretary - Truth Social [weekend update].

-(US) California voters are projected to reject Proposition 40, a first-of-its-kind wealth tax on the state's billionaires - Decision Desk HQ [weekend update].

-(US) Los Angeles port strike threat has been deferred as port security workers agree to extend talks with management to Nov 20th [weekend update].

-(US) BRK.A Reports Q3 (Class B) $10.33 v $14.28 y/y [weekend update].

-(US) ANT Reportedly Anthropic will proceed with its IPO roadshow next week - The Information (update) [weekend update].

-Anthropic [ANT]: Reached a $3.4B agreement to generate gas-fired power for data centers - FT.

-(US) Oct change in Nonfarm Payrolls: +165K V +70KE [Nov 6th].

-(US) Oct unemployment rate: 4.1% V 4.2%E [Nov 6th].

-(US) Oct average hourly earnings M/M: 0.4% V 0.3%E; Y/Y: 3.1% V 2.9%E [Nov 6th].

-(US) Sept consumer credit: $27.8B V $13.8BE [Nov 6th].

Europe

- (ZA) South Africa Municipal Election: ANC gets ~30.8% of the vote vs. ~24..6% for Democratic Alliance (DA); cites the final voting results; At the last municipal election in 2021, the ANC received ~45.6% of the vote.

Middle East

-(IR) US President Trump: Task Force Iron Gate is in full force and effect in the Islamic Republic of Iran. Coupled with history’s greatest Naval Blockade, very little gets into, or out of, Iran!; Affirmed highly 'unlikely' will order the US back to war with Iran if talks continue to progress - US financial press.

-(IR) Trump says US military has conducted new 'minor' strikes against Iran, hitting air defense systems Qeshm Island; US has made “a lot of progress” in talks with Iran - press [weekend update].

-(IR) Iran Navy: Oil tanker caught fire after striking naval mine east of the Strait of Hormuz - comments from Sun morning.

-(SA) Saudi Arabia coalition: Intercepted missile that was targeting Riyadh [weekend update].

-(IR) Iran Foreign Min Araqchi: US elections results brought 'pause' to mediators work; we have to wait 'a bit' for mediators to resume diplomatic path - Press.

-(IQ) There were no casualties from attack on Iraq Khor Mor; gas production halted at Khor Mor - financial press; Iraqi Kurdistan Ministries: Working to minimize the impact of the attack.

-(IQ) Iraqi Foreign Minister: Iraq has reached understandings with US to allow oil exports through Strait of Hormuz via shipping lane close to Oman, export operations remain ongoing - Al Jazeera Interview; Iraq's losses from the Iran war and disruptions to oil export operations reached $60B.

Levels as of 01:20 am EDT

Nikkei 225 +2.4%; ASX 200 +0.1%; Hang Seng +0.3%; Shanghai Composite +0.5%; Kospi -0.9%.

Equity S&P500 Futures +0.4%; Nasdaq100 +0.1%; DAX -0.2%; FTSE100 flat.

EUR 1.1165-1.1135; JPY 158.53-158.13; AUD 0.6903-0.6857; NZD 0.5603-0.5556.

Gold +1.2% at $4,118/oz; BTC -2.0% at $74,308; WTI Crude Oil -1.1% at $89.84/bbl; Copper +1.1% at $6.3293/lbs.