KBC Market Research Desk
KBC Bank
Regional Overview
Macro, FX & Rates: CE currencies in bearish mode
(CZK, HU & PL) FX: All Central European currencies weakened yesterday. While the Czech koruna briefly touched the former intervention level (EUR/CZK 27.00), the EUR/HUF temporary climbed above 314 but for this morning EUR/HUF has rebounded near to 313.30. Also the Polish zloty failed to react (positively) to very strong macro figures for March (see below).
(PL) Macro: As expected yesterday releases of the Polish macro figures were very strong and support the bullish view on the GDP growth in the first quarter. While industrial production climbed by 11.1% y/y, retail sales grew by 9.7% y/y.
Equities: PKN will release its results on April 27th
(PL) PKN: Company will release its 1Q17 figures on 27th April, B/Mkt (see enclosed). Although we expect another solid quarter, numbers will be boosted by many one – offs namely (FCC payment at USD 40mn linked to Unipetrol, positive LIFO effect between PLN 400 – 500mn and positive effect from PLN strengthening at roughly PLN 420mn). Considering current high valuations (25% above 5Y avg) of the company, we expect any positive effect to be rather limited.
(PL) BANKS: Nine listed Polish banks have posted PLN 2.05 bln in aggregate net profit in 1Q17, down 23% y/y and down 25% q/q, despite interest earnings rising 13% and F&C income up 9%, with the decline due to a change of the way of booking payments to the Banking Guarantee Fund according to daily Parkiet.
Daily preview: Zloty should watch S&P’s rating review
(PL) Macro: The S&P should release rating sovereign rating review of Poland. The country holds currently BBB+ rating with a stable outlook. No change is expected.
| LAST | PREVIOUS | CHANGE (%) | |
| EURCZK | 26.91 | 26.91 | 0.00 |
| EURHUF | 312.9 | 312.9 | 0.00 |
| EURPLN | 4.256 | 4.256 | 0.00 |
| LAST | PREVIOUS | CHANGE (bps) | |
| CZGB 10Y | 0.863 | 0.863 | 0.0 |
| HUGB 10Y | 3.27 | 3.27 | 0.0 |
| PLGB 10Y | 3.37 | 3.37 | 0.0 |
| LAST | PREVIOUS | CHANGE (%) | |
| PX | 967.5 | 967.5 | 0.00 |
| BUX | 32734 | 32734 | 0.00 |
| WIG | 59515 | 59515 | 0.00 |
This non-exhaustive information is based on short-term forecasts for expected developments on the financial markets. KBC Bank cannot guarantee that these forecasts will materialize and cannot be held liable in any way for direct or consequential loss arising from any use of this document or its content. The document is not intended as personalized investment advice and does not constitute a recommendation to buy, sell or hold investments described herein. Although information has been obtained from and is based upon sources KBC believes to be reliable, KBC does not guarantee the accuracy of this information, which may be incomplete or condensed. All opinions and estimates constitute a KBC judgment as of the data of the report and are subject to change without notice.
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