Regional Overview
Macro, FX & Rates: CNB liquidity accumulation slows down
(CZ) Ahead of Thursday’s meeting of the Czech National bank, the pace of liquidity accumulation has somehow slowed down. Nevertheless, the overall volume of interventions can still surpass monthly record hit in January 2017.
Equities: Philip Morris beats expectations
(CZ) Philip Morris released its FY16 results today B/MKT. Revenues increased 5.4% y/y to CZK 11.45bn, perfectly in line with our estimates and 1.6% above market consensus. / PM CR clearly did better than market anticipated in 2016, primarily due to the lower OPEX (staff cost down by 5% y/y amid higher shipments). Dividend is also above estimates (CZK 1000/shr vs. our’s CZK 950/shr and CZK 936/shr expected by the market). Although, the company may face some headwinds from planned tax increases in coming years and from anti-smoking legislative in the Czech Republic (May 2017), we still expect rather solid dividends in coming years. PM CR is thus still dividend play with some 7+% DY.
Weekly Preview: MNB to keep slightly dovish stance
(HU) The NBH was quite dovish last time again. The NBH statement still emphasized that the output gap is still negative and there are unused capacities. The Council doesn’t worry about the increasing inflation, they see consumer price index moving to the inflation target of 3% only in 2018. So we expect that the MPC may moderate further the cap on the 3-month depo instrument from HUF750bn to 600bn by the end of June. The new inflationary report will be published too, so it will be interesting how much the CPI outlook would be modified on the figures of jumping inflation and wages at the beginning of the year. We expect that NBH may keep its slightly dovish stance.
LAST | PREVIOUS | CHANGE (%) | |
EURCZK | 27.02 | 27.02 | 0.00 |
EURHUF | 308.9 | 310.6 | 0.00 |
EURPLN | 4.267 | 4.267 | 0.00 |
LAST | PREVIOUS | CHANGE (bps) | |
CZGB 10Y | 0.930 | 0.930 | 0.0 |
HUGB 10Y | 3.37 | 3.37 | 0.3 |
PLGB 10Y | 3.55 | 3.55 | 0.0 |
LAST | PREVIOUS | CHANGE (%) | |
PX | 982.5 | 982.5 | 0.00 |
BUX | 32097 | 32097 | 0.00 |
WIG | 59070 | 59070 | 0.00 |
This non-exhaustive information is based on short-term forecasts for expected developments on the financial markets. KBC Bank cannot guarantee that these forecasts will materialize and cannot be held liable in any way for direct or consequential loss arising from any use of this document or its content. The document is not intended as personalized investment advice and does not constitute a recommendation to buy, sell or hold investments described herein. Although information has been obtained from and is based upon sources KBC believes to be reliable, KBC does not guarantee the accuracy of this information, which may be incomplete or condensed. All opinions and estimates constitute a KBC judgment as of the data of the report and are subject to change without notice.
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EUR/USD stays under modest bearish pressure and trades near 1.0800 in the American session on Thursday. The data from the US showed that the real GDP growth for the fourth quarter got revised higher to 3.4% from 3.2%, supporting the USD and weighing on the pair.
GBP/USD stays in daily range above 1.2600
GBP/USD fluctuates in a narrow channel above 1.2600 on Thursday. The better-than-expected Initial Jobless Claims data from the US and the upward revision to the Q4 GDP growth helps the USD stay resilient against its rivals and limits the pair's upside.
Gold pulls away from daily highs, holds above $2,200
Gold retreats from daily highs but holds comfortably above $2,200 in the American session on Thursday. The benchmark 10-year US Treasury bond yield stays above 4.2% after upbeat US data and makes it difficult for XAU/USD to preserve its bullish momentum.
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