US indices gave back a small bit of the previous two days’ gains yesterday as China said more talks are needed to hammer out the details of the Phase 1 trade deal before President Xi Jinping would sign it. Turkey is facing US sanctions over Syria advance. Hong Kong violence escalates. A UK Brexit deal may be getting closer.

US30USD Daily Chart

Source: OANDA fxTrade

  • The US30 index slid slightly, falling for the first time in four days, after China diffused the near-term euphoria about a mini trade deal

  • The index remains capped by the 78.6% Fibonacci retracement of the drop from September 12 to October 3 at 26,974. The 100-day moving average is at 26,491

  • US Treasury Secretary Mnuchin said the US had a “fundamental agreement” with China, subject to documentation. He confirmed that more meetings are scheduled, adding that the signing of the deal prevent a further escalation in tariffs. There are no major US data releases scheduled for today.


DE30EUR Daily Chart

Source: OANDA fxTrade

  • The Germany30 index held on to gains made in the previous three sessions yesterday as the UK’s Telegraph reported progress being made in Brexit negotiations

  • The index consolidated below Friday’s high, which was the highest since July 25. The 100-day moving average is at 12,138

  • ZEW surveys on economic sentiment for both Germany and the Euro-zone are expected to fall in October, according to the latest surveys of economists. Germany’s is seen dropping to -27.3 from -22.5 while the Euro-zone’s is expected to decline to -33.0 from -22.4.


UK100GBP Daily Chart

Source: OANDA fxTrade

  • The UK100 index had a muted response to reports in the UK’s Telegraph that a Brexit deal may be crystallising

  • The index was little changed from Friday, holding below the 55-day moving average at 7,267. That moving average is below the 200-day moving average today, the first time since April 15. This is often interpreted as a medium-term bearish signal

  • UK’s jobless claims are seen improving to 27.9k in September from 28.2k the previous month, according to analysts’ estimates. BOE’s Vlieghe is due to speak today.

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