Energy price gaps across CEE

On the radar

• Czechia raised its key policy rate to 4.00%.
• Czechia's real retail sales rose 4.1% y/y in September.
• Retail sales for September in Romania, Hungary and Slovakia are due today.
• Serbian PPI for October is due at 12:00 CET today.
• Czechia's industrial production for September is due today.
• Today, Czechia's trade balance will be released for September.

Economic developments

Today, we look at energy prices for households and businesses in CEE, following Eurostat's latest release of 1H26 data. On average, households in the region paid EUR 212/MWh for electricity, around 19% more than businesses, comparing household prices including all taxes with business prices excluding recoverable VAT. The premium is largest in Czechia (73%), Romania (53%) and Poland (45%), while households in Hungary and Serbia pay considerably less than businesses. For gas, the gap is narrower at around 12%, based on seven CEE countries with comparable data, ranging from a premium of 58% in Czechia to a discount of 39% in Hungary. Following the outbreak of the Iran war at the end of February, emergency measures in several countries focused on motor fuels, including excise cuts and price caps. The electricity and gas price differences also reflect existing tariff structures and earlier policy changes. In Poland, the household electricity price cap expired at the end of 2025, while Czechia removed the fee for supported energy sources from January 2026, lowering household electricity costs. In Romania, household electricity prices increased sharply following the expiry of price caps in mid-2025, which were still in place a year earlier. Even so, CEE households still pay about a quarter less for electricity than the EU average and more than 40% less for gas. However, business electricity prices exceed the EU average in half of the CEE economies, potentially weighing on industrial competitiveness. Hungary's energy pricing structure, with household prices significantly below those paid by businesses, appears unsustainable, while postponing the necessary adjustments could further delay euro adoption.

Market movements

Bond yields declined across most markets today in CEE, led by Czechia and Poland, where 10Y yields fell 26bp and 31bp w/w, respectively. The CNB raised its policy rate by 25bp to 4.00% in a narrow 4–3 vote, but we do not expect further hikes in our baseline scenario at the moment. Despite the hike, the koruna weakened slightly to EUR/CZK 24.29. In Poland, the NBP held rates at 3.75%, while its revised inflation outlook reinforced expectations of possible tightening. Romania remained the regional exception, with 10Y yields rising 12bp w/w to 7.12% amid fiscal and EU-funds uncertainty, despite strong demand at the latest bond auction, which attracted more than twice the planned amount. Regional currencies softened, with the forint losing 0.5% against the euro. On the bond market, Croatian 10Y yields recorded the largest daily decline, falling 28bp to 3.83%. Meanwhile, the Czech government's proposed extension of sectoral taxation could add to fiscal policy uncertainty ahead of next week's discussions.

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