|

EM currencies and 60 year highs

The view to 50 year periods takes on a vastly different meaning in regards to EM currency pairs as many pairs trade at 60 and 67 year highs. And highs as USD/Other Currency and EUR/Other currency. USD and EUR both embarked on uptrends with the end result to reach 60 and 67 year highs beginning from 1953 and 1960.

What allowed such a rise in prices from the 1960's onward was the monetary policy revolution  that occurred in Europe between Germany and France and the fight for currency dominance between the French Franc and German Deutschmark. The victory went to the German central bank and the Duetschemark. And this revolution led to today's Euro as a single currency. Interested may read this most fascinating blow by blow and deeply detailed story in The Gold War by Ian Davidson and Gordon Weil.

If 60 and 67 year highs are viewed from the perspective of averages then miles upon miles of downside exists to both USD and EUR currency pairs. In year 48 of the currency free float then becomes the question to what and how EM currency prices wil trade upon the next 50 year period. Exchange rate prices for EM currencies are much higher  and contain far wider ranges than G28's and explains how easily EM may traverse the vital 50 year period mark. Yet it provides a warning to 60 and 67 year highs as prices must normalize.

USD/CLP the Chilean Peso for example trades at 60 year highs. Chile is home to the world's largest Copper mines and is the world's number 1 supplier. Are Copper prices lower for long periods upon a currency re set to the next 50 year period is unknown.

Following are historic highs for USD and EUR currencies and monthly average highs. All currently trade at or near historic tops. Any higher prices then creates another monthly average. AUD/CHF for example trading at 0.5800's and 60 year lows didn't exist as a price but a new monthly average was created at 0.5900's. Also note EUR exchange rates always priced above USD. Its traditonal EUR.

USD/CLP Chilean Peso, 60 year highs 834.18.

EUR/CLP 60 year highs 929.99

USD/COP Columbian Peso, 60 year highs 3917.1499

EUR/COP 60 year highs, 4362.07

USD/INR Indian Rupee, 60 year highs, 75.56

EUR/INR 60 year highs 85.26

USD/ISK Iceland Krona, 60 year highs, 142.67

EUR/ISK 60 year highs, 155.00

USD/MXN Mexican Peso, 60 year highs, 24.26

EUR/MXN 60 year highs 26.59

USD/MYR Malaysian Ringgit, 60 year highs, 4.3429

EUR/MYR 60 year highs, 4.9279

USD/NOK Norwegian Krone, 67 year highs, 10.1924

EUR/NOK, 67 year highs 11.2943

USD/PHP Philippean Peso, 60 year highs, 53.00's

EUR/PHP 60 year highs, 62.00's and trades at 54.00's

USD/SEK, Swedish Krona, 67 year highs 10.00's

EUR/SEK 67 year highs, 11.17

USD/ZAR, South African Rand, 60 year highs, 18.4447. New average created to accommodate higher Rand.

EUR/ZAR, 60 year highs, 20.0337, new average created.

USD/ARS Argentine Peso, 39 year highs, 64.8489. New average created due to higher prices.

EUR/ARS, 39 year highs, 70.4510, New average created.

USD/TRY, Turkish Lira, 21 year highs, 6.71

EUR/TRY 21 year highs, 7.2916

USD/RUB Russian Ruble 27 year highs, 67.00's

EUR/RUB 27 year highs, 84.03

USD/RON Romanian Leu, 14 year highs, Lifetime highs, 4.44

EUR/RON 14 year, lifetime highs, 4.8323

Author

Brian Twomey

Brian Twomey

Brian's Investment

Brian Twomey is an independent trader and a prolific writer on trading, having authored over sixty articles in Technical Analysis of Stocks & Commodities and Investopedia.

More from Brian Twomey
Share:

Editor's Picks

EUR/USD looks offered below 1.1900

EUR/USD keeps its bearish tone unchanged ahead of the opening bell in Asia, returning to the sub-1.1900 region following a firmer tone in the US Dollar. Indeed, the pair reverses two consecutive daily gains amid steady caution ahead of Wednesday’s key US Nonfarm Payrolls release.
 

GBP/USD slips back to daily lows near 1.3640

GBP/USD drops to daily lows near 1.3640 as sellers push harder and the Greenback extends its rebound in the latter part of Tuesday’s session. Looking ahead, the combination of key US releases, including NFP and CPI, alongside important UK data, should keep the pound firmly in focus over the coming days.

Gold declines to near $5,050, focus shifts to US jobs data

Gold price falls to near $5,045 during the early Asian session on Wednesday. Traders assess whether prices have found a floor following a historic sell-off. The delayed US employment report for January, which was pushed back due to the recently ended four-day government shutdown, will take center stage later on Wednesday.

Ethereum: Whales buy the dip amid rising short bets

Following one of Ethereum's largest weekly drawdowns, whales are slowly returning to action alongside a drop in retail selling pressure. After slightly selling into the decline at the start of the month, whales or wallets with a balance of 10K-100K ETH began buying the dip last Wednesday as prices crashed further. 

Dollar drops and stocks rally: The week of reckoning for US economic data

Following a sizeable move lower in US technology Stocks last week, we have witnessed a meaningful recovery unfold. The USD Index is in a concerning position; the monthly price continues to hold the south channel support.

XRP holds $1.40 amid ETF inflows and stable derivatives market

Ripple trades under pressure, with immediate support at $1.40 holding at the time of writing on Tuesday. A recovery attempt from last week’s sell-off to $1.12 stalled at $1.54 on Friday, leading to limited price action between the current support and the resistance.