|

Elliott Wave analysis: USD/JPY zigzag correction likely to fail below 149

The short-term Elliott Wave analysis for USDJPY indicates that the decline from the August 1, 2025, high is developing as a double three Elliott Wave structure. From that peak, wave ((w)) concluded at 146.2. The subsequent wave ((x)) rally formed another double three pattern at a lesser degree. Starting from wave ((w)), wave (w) reached 148.77, followed by a dip in wave (x) to 146.56. Wave (y) then climbed to 149.1, completing wave ((x)) at a higher degree.

Currently, USDJPY has turned downward in wave ((y)). However, it must break below the wave ((w)) low at 146.2 to eliminate the possibility of a double correction in wave ((x)). The internal structure of wave ((y)) is unfolding as a zigzag Elliott Wave pattern. From the wave ((x)) high, wave (a) ended at 146.3. Wave (b) is now rallying to correct the cycle from the September 3, 2025, high before resuming its downward trajectory. In the near term, as long as the pivot at 149.1 holds, expect any rally to falter in a 3, 7, or 11 swing, leading to further declines. The potential target for wave ((y)) lower lies within the 100%–161.8% Fibonacci extension of wave ((w)), projecting a range of 141.5–144.4.

USD/JPY – 60 Minute Elliott Wave technical chart

Chart

Author

Elliott Wave Forecast Team

Elliott Wave Forecast Team

ElliottWave-Forecast.com

More from Elliott Wave Forecast Team
Share:

Markets move fast. We move first.

Orange Juice Newsletter brings you expert driven insights - not headlines. Every day on your inbox.

By subscribing you agree to our Terms and conditions.

Editor's Picks

EUR/USD moves sideways below 1.1800 on Christmas Eve

EUR/USD struggles to find direction and trades in a narrow channel below 1.1800 after posting gains for two consecutive days. Bond and stock markets in the US will open at the usual time and close early on Christmas Eve, allowing the trading action to remain subdued. 

GBP/USD keeps range around 1.3500 amid quiet markets

GBP/USD keeps its range trade intact at around 1.3500 on Wednesday. The Pound Sterling holds the upper hand over the US Dollar amid pre-Christmas light trading as traders move to the sidelines heading into the holiday season. 

Gold retreats from record highs, trades below $4,500

Gold retreats after setting a new record-high above $4,520 earlier in the day and trades in a tight range below $4,500 as trading volumes thin out ahead of the Christmas break. The US Dollar selling bias remains unabated on the back of dovish Fed expectations, which continues to act as a tailwind for the bullion amid persistent geopolitical risks.

Bitcoin slips below $87,000 as ETF outflows intensify, whale participation declines

Bitcoin price continues to trade around $86,770 on Wednesday, after failing to break above the $90,000 resistance. US-listed spot ETFs record an outflow of $188.64 million on Tuesday, marking the fourth consecutive day of withdrawals.

Economic outlook 2026-2027 in advanced countries: Solidity test

After a year marked by global economic resilience and ending on a note of optimism, 2026 looks promising and could be a year of solid economic performance. In our baseline scenario, we expect most of the supportive factors at work in 2025 to continue to play a role in 2026.

Avalanche struggles near $12 as Grayscale files updated form for ETF

Avalanche trades close to $12 by press time on Wednesday, extending the nearly 2% drop from the previous day. Grayscale filed an updated form to convert its Avalanche-focused Trust into an ETF with the US Securities and Exchange Commission.