Economists bracing for solid 'if not spectacular' NFP report today

Matthew Ryan, CFA Ebury

US bond traders took a little bit of a breather yesterday, with the recent relentless sell-off in Treasuries pausing for a day.

All eyes on Friday will likely be on the December nonfarm payrolls report.

Recent economic news out of the US has been largely encouraging, and economists are bracing for another solid, if not spectacular, report this afternoon. Consensus is for a job creation number around the 160k mark.

Focus may be on the monthly wage number, which will likely be of more interest for FOMC officials. Another annual print around the 4% level seems on the cards, with economists expecting a monthly number of +0.3%.

Yet, with the FOMC making clear to markets that it is in no rush to continue cutting rates, we suspect that even a very weak report won’t change things too much for the Fed, and could have a relatively minimal impact on the dollar.

Author

Matthew Ryan, CFA

Ebury

Matthew is Global Head of Market Strategy at FX specialist Ebury, where he has been part of the strategy team since 2014. He provides fundamental FX analysis for a wide range of G10 and emerging market currencies.

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