More often than not in recent years, the key takeaway from these ECB meetings is that a hawkish action has been wrapped up in dovish message but that was very much not the case today.

People in the markets seemed convinced that we were heading for a dovish press conference from the soon-to-be outgoing ECB President but Draghi and his colleagues clearly had other ideas. For one, the revisions to the growth and inflation projections were not all negative as some would have assumed, based on recent inflation data and growing global risks. In fact, projections for this year were slightly raised in both cases, which was offset by slight reductions in the years after.

We looked to be set up for a dovish session when the announcement came, as we were told that the ECB took policy action at the meeting – which immediately sent the euro lower – before being told that rates will remain at present levels through the first half of 2020, while details of TLTRO III were also released. It didn't exactly live up to the opening line and the euro quickly reversed course to trade higher on the day.

The euro built on the rebound to trade around 1.13 against the dollar – from 1.12 after the announcement – as Draghi proceeded to layout the small changes to the projections and explain that there was an ample degree of monetary accommodation.

Of course, as ever with the ECB, there was the caveat that all instruments remain available – including restarting APP - the policy space is there and they're ready to act in case of adverse contingency. He also stressed that the next move isn't necessarily tilted towards rate hikes, which may have taken some of the edge off the euro near the highs.

Perhaps the central bank will become more dovish later in the year and lay out future steps once Draghi's successor takes control but one thing was clear today, the committee was in no mood to panic this month and will wait a little longer before responding to something that hasn't even yet fully materialised.

This article is for general information purposes only. It is not investment advice or a solution to buy or sell securities.

Opinions are the authors — not necessarily OANDA’s, its officers or directors. OANDA’s Terms of Use and Privacy Policy apply. Leveraged trading is high risk and not suitable for all. You could lose all of your deposited funds.

Analysis feed

Latest Forex Analysis

Editors’ Picks

EUR/USD: Ends five-day losing streak, but bias remains bearish

EUR/USD gained 0.19% on Wednesday, snapping a five-day losing streak, however, the outlook remains bearish as the pair is trading well below the former support-turned-resistance of 1.1162 (Aug. 12 low).

EUR/USD News

GBP/USD: Teasing inverse head-and-shoulders breakout

GBP/USD is flirting with the inverse head-and-shoulders neckline resistance of 1.2165 at press time. An inverse head-and-shoulders is a bullish reversal pattern and its success rate is high when it appears after a notable sell-off.

GBP/USD News

USD/JPY: 106.50 tested amid higher S&P futures, Treasury yields

Following a temporary reversal seen on Tuesday, the USD/JPY pair resume the bullish momentum in Wednesday's Asian trading and tests the 106.50 level, tracking the gains in the US Treasury yields and S&P 500 futures. 

USD/JPY News

FOMC Minutes July 30-31 Meeting Preview: The Fed vs the markets

The Fed policy that switched to neutral in Jan completed the circle last month with first decrease in the base rate in more than a decade from a 2.50% upper target to 2.25%. Markets expect a second cut at the September 18th FOMC.

Read more

Gold: Bulls cheer pullback from 10-day EMA

Following its successful bounce off 10-day exponential moving average (EMA), Gold takes the bids to $1507 during the early Asian session on Wednesday. The yellow metal now heads to Friday’s high around $1528 ahead of questioning the monthly top surrounding $1535.

Gold News

Majors

Cryptocurrencies

Signatures