ECB and Bank of Japan, EU Q3 GDP, HSBC, lloyds, NatWest, BP, whitbread and apple earnings

The Week Ahead - ECB and Bank of Japan, EU Q3 GDP, HSBC, Lloyds, NatWest, BP, Whitbread and Apple earnings

1) ECB rate decision – 29/10 – when the ECB expanded the size of its Pandemic Emergency Asset Purchase program from €750bn to €1.35trn as well as extending it into the middle of next year, there was probably an expectation that any recovery seen in Q3 would extend into the end of the year. While we've seen some evidence of an economic bounce back from the lockdowns seen in March and April, there is increasing evidence that the recovery has faltered, while headline inflation has slipped into deflationary territory. With services PMIs across Europe all back in contraction territory the ECB has gone to great lengths to insist that their monetary toolbox still has plenty of ammunition to deal with the prospect of a double-dip recession. Sadly, the reality is somewhat different, and in the absence of an imminent fiscal response from the EU due to a lack of consensus, the ECB remains the only game in town, however its response is being constrained by splits on the governing council, with a number of members pushing back against further stimulus in the short term. Once again, the ECB will come under pressure to articulate a new response to what is likely to be further economic weakness in Q4.

2) Bank of Japan rate decision – 29/10 – the most recent Japanese GDP numbers showed that the Japanese economy contracted 7.9% in Q2, with household spending making the largest part of that contraction. Since then the latest manufacturing and services PMI numbers in Q3 have remained consistently in contraction territory at around 46. This does not speak to a resilient economy, with domestic demand remaining stubbornly weak. Having spent most of the last thirty years keeping interest rates on the floor, and buying anything that isn't nailed down, the Japanese central bank has also struggled to fulfil its mandate in pushing inflation up to 2%. The Bank of Japan's latest policy, a $1trn loan program straight out of the Federal Reserve playbook, is the latest attempt by a central bank to help struggling firms over the coronavirus disruption hump. No changes in policy are expected with the banks latest loan program set to last until next March next year, and the economic recovery in Japan looking a lot weaker than it is elsewhere across the globe

3) US Personal Spending (Sep) 30/10 – the strong rebound in retail sales since the US came out of lockdown has been surprising to say the least. We've seen a V-shaped recovery when it comes to retail spending, while consumer confidence also rebounded strongly in September. This has come about despite a rise in uncertainty ahead of next month's presidential election, and the lapsing of the $600 a week payment that went to US households up to the end of July. Personal spending has also been strong rising for four months in succession with the prospect we could see another month in positive territory.

4) UK lending data - mortgage approvals and net consumer credit (Sep) – 29/10 – after a sharp pause pre and post lockdown, when UK consumers repaid almost £16bn between March and June, lending has started to pick up modestly in Q3, with £1.4bn of new credit in July and August. This speaks to a weak rebound and overriding caution on the part of UK consumers on taking on new liabilities. Mortgage approvals on the other hand have picked up, helped to some extent by the new stamp duty rules, as well customers re-mortgaging to take advantage of new lower fixed rates, sending them to their best levels since October 2007 in August to 84.7k. This appears to be a trend that could well continue given the resilience being seen in recent house price data.

5) France/Germany/EU Q3 GDP – 30/10 – this week's latest France, Germany and EU Q3 GDP numbers are likely to point to a significant economic rebound in the summer months, however they are already likely to be old news given the slowdowns caused by rising infection rates, and tighter restrictions, being seen as we head into year end. This is due to the slow decline in various services PMI numbers that we started to see in the late summer, particularly in August and September, which showed that economic activity was already starting to deteriorate. Expectations are for French Q3 GDP to recover 14.2%, after a 13.8% contraction in Q2, while Germany is set to recover 7.5%, from the 9.7% decline seen in Q2. EU GDP is also set to rebound 9%, from the -11.8% decline seen in Q2.

6) Whitbread H1 20 – 27/10 – of all the sectors that have borne the brunt of coronavirus disruption the hotel sector has been at the forefront. A fairly decent set of full year numbers in May was almost incidental as the pandemic blew a huge hole in its expectations for this year, with all but 39 of its hotels in the UK remaining closed, with the assumption that they would have fairly low occupancy until September. While the summer months have seen a pick up, the slowdown in bookings and the upcoming end of furlough saw company management warn that 6,000 jobs could go last month, which would be 18% of the work force, if the crisis continues to hit demand for its rooms. Demand for rooms was strong in seaside and holiday destinations as consumers took advantage of staycations, with 80% occupancy rates, however city centre demand remained weak. In September management said overall occupancy rates were averaging 51% in August, while restaurant performance was boosted by "eat out to help out" which helped boost total sales to 38.5% below last year's levels. In Germany, there was also positive news with the hotels there re-opening on 11th May, and the summer recovery matching the patterns seen in the UK. This week's update is likely to show that Premier Inn performed well in Q3, giving itself some breathing space, as it looks at the prospect of a weaker Q4 as the tightening of lockdown restrictions impact both its city centre and regional outlets.

7) BP Q3 20 – 27/10 – having announced almost $20bn in write-downs this year, in August BP finally succumbed to the inevitable and cut its dividend from 10.5c to 5.25c a share as it outlined its new strategy to restructure the business against a backdrop of slowing demand, and a shift towards renewable energy. Investor reaction since new CEO Bernard Looney outlined these new plans has been less than enthusiastic with the share price continuing to fall to levels last seen in 1995. While this is disappointing turning around a company of BPs size and mind-set was always going to be akin to turning around a super tanker. The reality was that doing nothing was not an option, as net debt approached the $50bn mark. The company has finally taken steps to reduce this in the form of disposals, selling its Alaska business, Hilcorp, for $5.6bn and its petrochemicals business to Ineos for $5bn. It also expects to complete the sale of its assets in the North Sea to Premier Oil by the end of this quarter, as well as completing the sale of its interest in the Trans-Alaska Pipeline. Its commitment to embark on a ten-fold increase in low carbon investment by 2030 sounds laudable, but it's still small change when compared to how much BP spent in acquiring BHP's shale assets in 2018, and the fact that this year's capex budget is expected to be in the region of $12bn. Another problem facing the oil giants is that of a weak industry refining environment, with Q2 the weakest in 15 years, which suggest that Q3 is unlikely to be much better. There were some bright spots in BP's most recent trading update, namely a strong performance from its trading division which helped bring the Q2 loss down to -$6.7bn, with the hope that this can be repeated in Q3.

8) Lloyds Banking Group/NatWest Group Q3 20 – 29/10 and 30/10 – over the last few years the share price of UK banks has struggled due to concerns over Brexit, however it has been concern over the coronavirus outbreak, and its long term impact on UK consumers that has helped drive the share price to new multi-year lows, along with concerns about shrinking margins. Recent talk about the prospect of negative rates hasn't helped either, and while UK banks are in better shape than their European counterparts' policymakers here in the UK seem intent in making any recovery more difficult than it needs to be. From the backlash against so called "casino banking" here and the prospect of rock bottom and possibly negative interest rates we've seen the result that the less diversified UK banks have struggled in what is an extremely competitive UK market. The only reassurance would appear to be that the UK government appears willing to backstop some of the new lending that the banks need to do to keep the UK economy on life support. Unfortunately, that's unlikely to address the real problem, which is expected to be one of widespread loan loss provisions as consumers default on their existing debt obligations. For now, the UK government furlough scheme is helping to cushion the falls in disposable income, however the thousands of job losses that have been announced in the last few weeks are likely to create a trickledown effect of loan restructurings as well as possible losses. In Q2 Lloyds pushed up the estimate of total loan losses for the year to £5.5bn, after the bank set aside another £2.4bn as the company posted a statutory first half loss of £602m, with £676m of that coming in Q2. Net interest margin for the quarter also fell sharply from 2.79% to 2.4% in Q2 as lower interest rates ate into the banks' ability to generate income. This is unlikely to improve with the Bank of England seemingly intent on trying to implement a destructive negative rate policy. NatWest Group's numbers in Q2 painted a similar picture, having posted impairments of £801m in Q1, and an attributable profit of £288m, the bank posted Q2 impairments of over £2bn, well above expectations of £932m. The bank said it expects full year impairments of between £3.5bn and £4.5bn. In terms of the overall numbers the bank posted a first half pre-tax loss of £770m, and on most comparatives the numbers don't look great. Net interest margin fell to 1.67%, while in Q2 income across retail and the commercial bank fell by £176m reflecting the slide in UK bond yields and the flattening of the yield curve. Furthermore, weaker consumer spending and lower business activity didn't help, though this isn't too surprising given the lockdown of the UK economy, during the period.

9) HSBC Q3 20 – 27/10 – When HSBC reported its first half numbers in August, the shares hit an 11 year low in London trade, after reporting that it could see up to $13bn in loan losses over the course of the rest of the year. Since the shares have continued to slip back, as signs of a second wave and further central bank stimulus have weighed on the sector. The bank increased its provision for credit losses in H1 by $5.7bn to $6.9bn, largely as result of uncertainty over the economic outlook and Covid-19. The bank also set aside $1.2bn in respect of software intangibles, mainly in its European operation. The bank is already undergoing a significant cost cutting plan with 4,000 jobs already cut in the first half alone. Those numbers look likely to increase the pressure to speed up this cost cutting plan, with the bank planning to offload at least another 31,000 positions in the weeks and months ahead. 300 more job losses were announced earlier this month, after the bank said it would be undergoing a restructure of its UK commercial banking division. The bank also cited concerns over the outlook in Hong Kong and the UK, due to geopolitical uncertainty, while pledging to review the dividend policy at the end of the financial year. Its Hong Kong problems are likely to be particularly acute, as it strives to navigate a tightrope between the US and Chinese governments, whoever is elected as the next US President. There could come a point when it has to decide whether to pivot even more towards Asia, at the expense of its US and UK businesses, if tensions between the US and China continue to persist. The shares did receive a boost at the end of last month when one of its largest shareholders Ping An raised its stake from 7.95% to 8%, pulling the shares off their 25-year London and Hong Kong trading lows.

10) Apple Q4 20 – 29/10 – when Apple reported in Q3 there was some expectation that it would be a weaker quarter given that consumers tend to hold off in the second half of the year in expectation of the announcement of new product launches. The pandemic has also presented Apple with a series of challenges which it has been able to overcome with the launch of new cheaper iPhones like the SE, its cheapest ever handset at the beginning of Q3, which does appear to have prompted some switchers from Android, and helped boost sales in May and June, which in turn saw sales and revenues increase. iPhone sales saw a rise of 1.6% over the year, with revenue rising to $26.4bn, while the sale of iPads and Mac computers also saw decent growth, largely as a result of the increase in working from home. Services revenue was a little disappointing slipping back from the level seen in Q2 to $13.1bn, though it was still higher than the same quarter last year. It's still a little disappointing when you consider that Apple TV+ is part of that revenue stream, when compared to how Amazon Prime Video and Netflix have done. The recent stock split doesn't appear to have done it any harm, if anything it has made the shares more affordable to a wider retail audience. In September the company also launched a raft of new upgrades including a new iPad, and Apple One subscription bundle in what looks like an attempt to take on Amazon Prime, and a new Apple Watch 6 with a fitness bundle. None of these new products will be reflected in this week's numbers, which means investors will be looking for clues as to whether Apple management will offer any guidance as to what to expect in terms of unit sales in the lead-up to Thanksgiving and Christmas. This means that this week's numbers could fall short on the hardware sales front as customers hold back until the various product improvements have been announced as they now have been. With pre orders for the new iPhone in China looking strong, it wouldn't be a surprise to see a weak Q4 followed by a strong Q1.

11) Facebook Q3 20 – 29/10 – the coronavirus pandemic made little impact on Facebook's ability to generate increased revenues. In Q2 the company generated $18.7bn up from $16.9bn with profits nearly doubling to $5.18bn, despite rising concerns that the company has a disproportionate influence on what its users can see, and what they say on its platforms. Average monthly users rose to 2.7bn up from 2.6bn in Q1. The company was more circumspect about its Q3 guidance which it said would only see revenue growth of around 10%. The company is already under pressure from ad boycotts as well as coming under pressure on how it deals with so called hate speech on its various platforms. The bigger concern as we head towards the latest earnings number is that expectations around Facebook's user growth, as well as its underlying revenue numbers could well be too high, given that this week's Q3 numbers will include the period where businesses came under pressure to boycott the firm. Profits are expected to come in at $1.91c a share.

12) Amazon Q3 20 – 29/10 – when Amazon reported in Q2, profits saw a sharp rise as people shopped on line through lockdown. These increased sales still managed to outstrip rising costs as a result of safeguarding measures for its staff. These costs came in at a staggering $4bn as the company hired 175k new staff, as it expanded its grocery delivery capability by 160%. Management said they expected to spend another $2bn in Q3 with sales expected to come in between $87bn and $93bn. Amazon's Web Services division also saw decent gains in Q2, with operating income of $3.4bn, up 60% on the year, though revenue growth slowed, as the cloud computing sector saw more and more new players come to the fore, with Snowflake one of many smaller companies playing in Amazon's sandbox.