Dow Bucks Trend

Nick Mastrandrea Market Tea Leaves

Good Morning Traders,

As of this writing 3:45 AM EST, here’s what we see:

US Dollar: Dec. USD is Up at 95.570.
Energies: Oct '18 Crude is Up at 74.74.
Financials: The Dec 30 year bond is Down 10 ticks and trading at 136.23.
Indices: The Dec S&P 500 emini ES contract is 18 ticks Lower and trading at 2889.25.
Gold: The Dec Gold contract is trading Up at 1192.60. Gold is 40 ticks Lower than its close.

Initial Conclusion

This is not a correlated market. The dollar is Up+ and Crude is Up+ which is not normal and the 30 year Bond is trading Lower. The Financials should always correlate with the US dollar such that if the dollar is lower then bonds should follow and vice-versa. The S&P is Lower and Crude is trading Higher which is correlated. Gold is trading Up+ which is not correlated with the US dollar trading Higher. I tend to believe that Gold has an inverse relationship with the US Dollar as when the US Dollar is down, Gold tends to rise in value and vice-versa. Think of it as a seesaw, when one is up the other should be down. I point this out to you to make you aware that when we don't have a correlated market, it means something is wrong. As traders you need to be aware of this and proceed with your eyes wide open.

At this hour Asia is trading mainly Lower with the exception of the Shanghai exchange which is fractionally Higher. Currently all of Europe is trading Higher.

Possible Challenges To Traders Today

NFIB Small Business Index is out at 6 AM EST. Major.
IBD/TIPP Economic Optimism is out at 10 AM EST. Major.

Treasuries

We've elected to switch gears a bit and show correlation between the 30 year bond (ZB) and The YM futures contract. The YM contract is the DJIA and the purpose is to show reverse correlation between the two instruments. Remember it's liken to a seesaw, when up goes up the other should go down and vice versa.

Yesterday the ZB made it's move at around 11:30 AM EST. The ZB hit a High at around that time and the YM hit a Low. If you look at the charts below ZB gave a signal at around 11:30 AM EST and the YM was moving Higher at the same time. Look at the charts below and you'll see a pattern for both assets. ZB hit a High at around 11:30 AM and the YM was moving Higher at the same time. These charts represent the newest version of MultiCharts and I've changed the timeframe to a 30 minute chart to display better. This represented a Long opportunity on the 30 year bond, as a trader you could have netted about a dozen ticks per contract on this trade. Each tick is worth $31.25.

Charts Courtesy of MultiCharts built on an AMP platform.

Bias

Yesterday we gave the markets a Neutral bias as all the instruments we track was pointed Lower and the markets had no sense of direction, hence the Neutral bias. The Dow gained 40 points however the other indices lost ground. Today we aren't dealing with a correlated market and our bias is to the Downside.

Could this change? Of Course. Remember anything can happen in a volatile market.

Commentary

Yesterday morning all the instruments we track was pointed Lower. Whenever you have a situation whereby everything is pointed Lower or conversely everything is pointed Higher, you have no correlation and no sense of direction. Hence the Neutral bias. A Neutral bias means the markets could go in any direction and often does. Yesterday the markets remained solidly negative until after 2 PM EST when the Dow started to rise. Will we see a brighter day today? Only time will tell.....

Author

Nick Mastrandrea

Market Tea Leaves

EUR/USD hits two-day highs near 1.1820

EUR/USD picks up pace and reaches two-day tops around 1.1820 at the end of the week. The pair’s move higher comes on the back of renewed weakness in the US Dollar amid growing talk that the Fed could deliver an interest rate cut as early as March. On the docket, the flash US Consumer Sentiment improves to 57.3 in February.

GBP/USD reclaims 1.3600 and above

GBP/USD reverses two straight days of losses, surpassing the key 1.3600 yardstick on Friday. Cable’s rebound comes as the Greenback slips away from two-week highs in response to some profit-taking mood and speculation of Fed rate cuts. In addition, hawkish comments from the BoE’s Pill are also collaborating with the quid’s improvement.

Gold climbs further, focus is back to 45,000

Gold regains upside traction and surpasses the $4,900 mark per troy ounce at the end of the week, shifting its attention to the critical $5,000 region. The move reflects a shift in risk sentiment, driving flows back towards traditional safe haven assets and supporting the yellow metal.

Crypto Today: Bitcoin, Ethereum, XRP rebound amid risk-off, $2.6 billion liquidation wave

Bitcoin edges up above $65,000 at the time of writing on Friday, as dust from the recent macro-triggered sell-off settles. The leading altcoin, Ethereum, hovers above $1,900, but resistance at $2,000 caps the upside. Meanwhile, Ripple has recorded the largest intraday jump among the three assets, up over 10% to $1.35.

Three scenarios for Japanese Yen ahead of snap election

The latest polls point to a dominant win for the ruling bloc at the upcoming Japanese snap election. The larger Sanae Takaichi’s mandate, the more investors fear faster implementation of tax cuts and spending plans.

XRP rally extends as modest ETF inflows support recovery

Ripple is accelerating its recovery, trading above $1.36 at the time of writing on Friday, as investors adjust their positions following a turbulent week in the broader crypto market. The remittance token is up over 21% from its intraday low of $1.12.