Double feature: Durable goods orders and industrial production

Wells Fargo Research Team Wells Fargo

Summary

Business investment over the past year has looked resilient largely because spending has been heavily concentrated in AI and high‑tech, masking weakness in other sectors. High‑tech orders, production, and imports have surged, while non‑tech focused capital goods and output have lagged or declined.

Today's December durable goods orders and January industrial production data suggest this is changing.

While the AI investment boom is expected to continue, recent data suggest early signs of a broader pickup, with traditional capex stabilizing and non‑high‑tech output improving. This is occurring amid supportive tax incentives and a growing willingness by firms to finance investment beyond AI.

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Wells Fargo Research Team

Wells Fargo

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