Donald’s Debut

Alan Hill Treasury Consultancy

The market has slipped into a neutral mode ahead of Donald Trump’s first major news conference since his election.

It is likely that he will be spelling out more of his plans for the economy. It is to be hoped that his ideas from before the election will have morphed into plans!

Given the unpredictability of his past speeches one of the major things commentators will look for is a more considered approach and a realization that the eyes of the world are on him and what he says now actually matters.

Where does this leave markets?

The Federal Reserve is on a three hike strategy for interest rates in 2017, so how he plans to put in place a growth driven monetary policy will be keenly anticipated. It is unlikely in the extreme that he will surprise by being even more expansive so the potential for a surprise is if he reins in his ideas.

The last president to be viewed as sceptically by the markets as Trump was Reagan and he got around the issue by surrounding himself with very good people in key roles. Trump has started in a similar vein but in the new digital age where social media rules, everyone has an opinion.

Elsewhere, China seems unable to break the shackles of its secretive past by warning banks and traders against revealing details of its market actions Whilst this has no direct effect on the market today it illustrates how far China is from being able to Usurp the U.S. as the world’s dominant economic power.

Author

Alan Hill

Treasury Consultancy

A highly experienced banker with an in depth knowledge of Corporate Banking, Treasury and Trade Finance. Global markets, risk management, FX trading and sales & interest rate management have been a major part of my career.

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